Pessimism of the Intellect, Optimism of the Will Favorite posts | Manifold podcast | Twitter: @hsu_steve
Thursday, July 27, 2023
Paul Huang, the real situation in Taiwan: politics, military, China — Manifold #40
Wednesday, June 28, 2023
Embryo Selection: Healthy Babies vs Bad Arguments
Polygenic screening and its discontents
... But monogenic and chromosomal screening can only address a part of disease risk because most health conditions that afflict people are polygenic, meaning they are not simply caused by one gene or by a chromosomal abnormality. Instead, they are caused by a huge number of small additive effects dispersed throughout the genome. For example, cancer, schizophrenia, and diabetes can be best predicted by models using tens of thousands of genes.
A polygenic risk score (PRS) looks at a person’s DNA to see how many variants they have associated with a particular disease. Like BRCA1, polygenic risk scores are typically not determinative: “Polygenic screening is not a diagnosis: It is a prediction of relative future risk compared to other people.” In other words, someone with BRCA1 has a higher risk than someone without, and someone with a high breast cancer PRS has a higher risk than someone with a lower breast cancer PRS. But in principle, BRCA1 is just one gene out of thousands contributing to a PRS, with each bit contributing a small part of a total risk estimate. ...
... Recently, a group of European scientists argued that polygenic screening should not be available to couples because it will lead to stigmatization, exacerbate inequalities, or lead to confusion by parents about how to weigh up information about risks before they decide which embryo to implant. These are indeed challenges, but they are not unique to embryo selection using polygenic scores, and they are not plausible arguments for restricting the autonomy of parents who wish to screen their embryos for polygenic traits. Furthermore, from an ethical perspective, it is unconscionable to deny polygenic screening to families with a history of any disease whose risk can be reduced by this lifesaving technology.
Many new technologies are initially only available to people with more money, but these first adopters then end up subsidizing research that drives costs down and quality up. Many other medical choices involve complexity or might result in some people being stigmatized, but this is a reason to encourage genetic counseling and to encourage social tolerance. It is not a reason to marginalize, stigmatize, or criminalize IVF mothers and fathers who wish to use the best available science to increase the chances that their children will be healthy and happy.This is a comment on the article:
1) They don't want to admit that some people are better than others, inherently. Boo hoo.
2) You put a scorecard of embryos in front of everyone, and everyone has a pretty good ballpark estimate of which are better and which are worse. Nobody is going to pretend equality is true when they are choosing their kids genes.
3) So bad feels.
4) Must therefore retard all human progress and cause immense suffering because don't want to deal with bad feels.
That's the anti-polygenic argument in a nutshell. I don't expect it to be very effective. At best it will cause it to take a bit longer before poor people have access.
Thursday, January 19, 2023
Dominic Cummings: Vote Leave, Brexit, COVID, and No. 10 with Boris — Manifold #28
Sunday, November 13, 2022
Smart Leftists vs Dumb Leftists
Smart Leftists vs Dumb Leftists:
— steve hsu (@hsu_steve) November 13, 2022
Who qualifies as former?
How about Soros, the top donor to the Democratic Party?
A few years ago I gave a talk on genomics (including of cognitive ability) to top leadership at Soros Fund Management.
Reaction: overwhelmingy positive 🤔 1/
Smart Leftists know things which they cannot admit in public.
— steve hsu (@hsu_steve) November 13, 2022
Dumb Leftists fight over these things like retards scuffling in the hallway.
2/
See, e.g., https://t.co/iiqc9TM5ue pic.twitter.com/IUIKp5Y60L
If you are not a billionaire, but want to know what I told the Soros people, see the talks I've given at Berkeley Innovative Genomics Institute, DeepMind, OpenAI, Janelia Farms (HHMI), Allen Institute, Cold Spring Harbor, etc.
— steve hsu (@hsu_steve) November 13, 2022
Links below. 3/https://t.co/xrvxOm1Ld4
Note, the forward looking statements I made in these talks - which were considered bold by the academic genomics community at the time - have almost all been proven correct. 4/https://t.co/vVq4m1Hr11https://t.co/bHYr7vfhdAhttps://t.co/ONdOKyDmQc
— steve hsu (@hsu_steve) November 13, 2022
The impact of progess in polygenic prediction is not confined to academic science.
— steve hsu (@hsu_steve) November 13, 2022
It is going to change how humans reproduce, and even the course of human evolution. 5/https://t.co/Z1fr1zMhD3 pic.twitter.com/iJx5yoZRaR
Thursday, November 03, 2022
Richard Sander on SCOTUS Oral Arguments: Affirmative Action and Discrimination against Asian Americans at Harvard and UNC (Manifold #23)
Sunday, August 14, 2022
Tweet Treats: AI in PRC, Semiconductors and the Russian War Machine, Wordcels are Midwits
Tsinghua University (dad's alma mater) seems to be the only academic institution in the world keeping up with big corp labs like OpenAI, Google Brain / DeepMind, Baidu, etc. in large AI models.
— steve hsu (@hsu_steve) August 12, 2022
(NB: partnership with AI startup. Similar US examples?)https://t.co/lFjMBbVU7p pic.twitter.com/0il2R2iE2s
Wordcels (e.g., in policy or geostrategy) have mystical ideas re: at-scale AI research, mistakenly linking progress to lone geniuses / democracy / open society..
— steve hsu (@hsu_steve) August 12, 2022
They don't realize it's an engineering problem that requires *very* capable teams, but well within PRC capability 🤔
RUSI report: semiconductor content of Russian weapons. Snapshot below from conclusions.
— steve hsu (@hsu_steve) August 14, 2022
Miltech almost never uses leading edge (e.g., 7nm) chips. Much older e.g. 200nm process sufficient. RUS can source from PRC or use sanction evasion networks...https://t.co/ol5cpTPA0l pic.twitter.com/bdL4SqEn4f
I quote "expert" reports like this because wordcels / midwits can't reason from first principles.
— steve hsu (@hsu_steve) August 14, 2022
Right-tail obvious inferences which go against conventional wisdom ("sanctions will crush RUS economy and war machine!" "UKR will win!") need to be "sourced" from "real experts" 🤔
On midwits and wordcels: g factor depends on M,V,S. If only V is high while M,S are mediocre, implies total g is ony in midwit range even if V (ability to make vacuous but impressive sounding BS arguments) is exceptional.
— steve hsu (@hsu_steve) August 14, 2022
See Stephen J. Gould!https://t.co/958kZW7MIb pic.twitter.com/pqwQywyTWc
Yes. Chips RUS needs for weapons cost ~$1 these days & can be sourced widely. Plus PRC is on the verge of indigenous 7nm.
— steve hsu (@hsu_steve) August 14, 2022
Confusion reveals Dunning Kruger nature of our punditry and political (even strategic) leadership.
Plenty more strategic confusion:https://t.co/u2Zwk18z10 pic.twitter.com/ML4YXs0bbi
Tuesday, May 03, 2022
How We Learned, Then Forgot, About Human Intelligence... And Witnessing the Live Breakdown of Academia (podcast interview with Cactus Chu)
Timestamps:
3:24 Interview Starts
15:49 Cactus' Experience with High Math People
19:49 High School Sports
21:26 Comparison to Intelligence
26:29 Is Lack of Understanding due to Denial or Ignorance?
29:29 The Past and Present of Selection in Academia
37:02 How Universities Look from the Inside
44:19 Informal Networks Replacing Credentials
48:37 Capture of Research Positions
50:24 Progressivism as Demagoguery Against the Self-Made
55:31 Innumeracy is Common
1:06:53 Understanding Innumerate People
1:13:53 Skill Alignment at Cactus' High School
1:18:12 Free Speech in Academia
1:21:00 You Shouldn't Fire Exceptional People
1:23:03 The Anti-Excellence Progressives
1:28:42 Rawls, Nozick, and Technology
1:34:00 Freedom = Variance = Inequality
1:37:58 Dating Apps
1:41:27 Jumping Into Social Problems From a Technical Background
1:41:50 Steve's High School Pranks
1:46:43 996 and Cactus' High School
1:50:26 The Vietnam War and Social Change
1:53:07 Are Podcasts the Future?
1:59:37 The Power of New Things
2:02:56 The Birth of Twitter
2:07:27 Selection Creates Quality
2:10:21 Incentives of University Departments
2:16:29 Woke Bureaucrats
2:27:59 Building a New University
2:30:42 What needs more order?
2:31:56 What needs more chaos?
@hsu_steve on innumerate journalists, professors, and politicians:
— Cactus Chu (@cactus_chu) May 3, 2022
"If you are not high [Math], you cannot reason from statistical data" pic.twitter.com/N3glUITCXH
Saturday, November 27, 2021
Social and Educational Mobility: Denmark vs USA (James Heckman)
Lessons for Americans from Denmark about inequality and social mobility
James Heckman and Rasmus Landersø
Abstract Many progressive American policy analysts point to Denmark as a model welfare state with low levels of income inequality and high levels of income mobility across generations. It has in place many social policies now advocated for adoption in the U.S. Despite generous Danish social policies, family influence on important child outcomes in Denmark is about as strong as it is in the United States. More advantaged families are better able to access, utilize, and influence universally available programs. Purposive sorting by levels of family advantage create neighborhood effects. Powerful forces not easily mitigated by Danish-style welfare state programs operate in both countries.Also discussed in this episode of EconTalk podcast. Russ does not ask the obvious question about disentangling family environment from genetic transmission of inequality.
Tuesday, November 09, 2021
The Balance of Power in the Western Pacific and the Death of the Naval Surface Ship
See LEO SAR, hypersonics, and the death of the naval surface ship:
In an earlier post we described how sea blockade (e.g., against Japan or Taiwan) can be implemented using satellite imaging and missiles, drones, AI/ML. Blue water naval dominance is not required.
PLAN/PLARF can track every container ship and oil tanker as they approach Kaohsiung or Nagoya. All are in missile range -- sitting ducks. Naval convoys will be just as vulnerable.
Sink one tanker or cargo ship, or just issue a strong warning, and no shipping company in the world will be stupid enough to try to run the blockade.
USN guy: We'll just hide the carrier from the satellite and missile seekers using, you know, countermeasures! [Aside: don't cut my carrier budget!]
USAF guy: Uh, the much smaller AESA/IR seeker on their AAM can easily detect an aircraft from much longer ranges. How will you hide a huge ship?
USN guy: We'll just shoot down the maneuvering hypersonic missile using, you know, methods. [Aside: don't cut my carrier budget!]
Missile defense guy: Can you explain to us how to do that? If the incoming missile maneuvers we have to adapt the interceptor trajectory (in real time) to where we project the missile to be after some delay. But we can't know its trajectory ahead of time, unlike for a ballistic (non-maneuvering) warhead.
Saturday, October 30, 2021
Slowed canonical progress in large fields of science (PNAS)
Slowed canonical progress in large fields of science
Johan S. G. Chu and James A. Evans
PNAS October 12, 2021 118 (41) e2021636118
Significance The size of scientific fields may impede the rise of new ideas. Examining 1.8 billion citations among 90 million papers across 241 subjects, we find a deluge of papers does not lead to turnover of central ideas in a field, but rather to ossification of canon. Scholars in fields where many papers are published annually face difficulty getting published, read, and cited unless their work references already widely cited articles. New papers containing potentially important contributions cannot garner field-wide attention through gradual processes of diffusion. These findings suggest fundamental progress may be stymied if quantitative growth of scientific endeavors—in number of scientists, institutes, and papers—is not balanced by structures fostering disruptive scholarship and focusing attention on novel ideas.
Abstract In many academic fields, the number of papers published each year has increased significantly over time. Policy measures aim to increase the quantity of scientists, research funding, and scientific output, which is measured by the number of papers produced. These quantitative metrics determine the career trajectories of scholars and evaluations of academic departments, institutions, and nations. Whether and how these increases in the numbers of scientists and papers translate into advances in knowledge is unclear, however. Here, we first lay out a theoretical argument for why too many papers published each year in a field can lead to stagnation rather than advance. The deluge of new papers may deprive reviewers and readers the cognitive slack required to fully recognize and understand novel ideas. Competition among many new ideas may prevent the gradual accumulation of focused attention on a promising new idea. Then, we show data supporting the predictions of this theory. When the number of papers published per year in a scientific field grows large, citations flow disproportionately to already well-cited papers; the list of most-cited papers ossifies; new papers are unlikely to ever become highly cited, and when they do, it is not through a gradual, cumulative process of attention gathering; and newly published papers become unlikely to disrupt existing work. These findings suggest that the progress of large scientific fields may be slowed, trapped in existing canon. Policy measures shifting how scientific work is produced, disseminated, consumed, and rewarded may be called for to push fields into new, more fertile areas of study.
A toy model of the dynamics of scientific research, with probability distributions for accuracy of experimental results, mechanisms for updating of beliefs by individual scientists, crowd behavior, bounded cognition, etc. can easily exhibit parameter regions where progress is limited (one could even find equilibria in which most beliefs held by individual scientists are false!). Obviously the complexity of the systems under study and the quality of human capital in a particular field are important determinants of the rate of progress and its character.
In physics it is said that successful new theories swallow their predecessors whole. That is, even revolutionary new theories (e.g., special relativity or quantum mechanics) reduce to their predecessors in the previously studied circumstances (e.g., low velocity, macroscopic objects). Swallowing whole is a sign of proper function -- it means the previous generation of scientists was competent: what they believed to be true was (at least approximately) true. Their models were accurate in some limit and could continue to be used when appropriate (e.g., Newtonian mechanics).
In some fields (not to name names!) we don't see this phenomenon. Rather, we see new paradigms which wholly contradict earlier strongly held beliefs that were predominant in the field* -- there was no range of circumstances in which the earlier beliefs were correct. We might even see oscillations of mutually contradictory, widely accepted paradigms over decades.
It takes a serious interest in the history of science (and some brainpower) to determine which of the two regimes above describes a particular area of research. I believe we have good examples of both types in the academy.
* This means the earlier (or later!) generation of scientists in that field was incompetent. One or more of the following must have been true: their experimental observations were shoddy, they derived overly strong beliefs from weak data, they allowed overly strong priors to determine their beliefs.
Friday, August 27, 2021
Tragedy of Empire / Mostly Sociopaths at the Top
Ecclesiastes 1:9 (KJV) The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.
At the strategic level it has been clear for 10+ years that our resources were better used elsewhere. It was obvious as well that we were not succeeding in nation building or creating a self-sustaining government there. I could go into more detail but you can get it from the links / interviews in the post.
At the tactical level it should have been obvious that a quick collapse was very possible, just as in S. Vietnam (see earlier oral history post). Off-topic: same thing could happen in Taiwan in event of an actual invasion, but US strategists are clueless.
Biden deserves credit for staying the course and not kicking the can down the road, as effectively a generation (slight exaggeration) of military and political leaders have done.
The distortion of the truth by senior leaders in the military and in politics is clear for all to see. Just read what mid-level commanders (e.g., Sjursen) and intel analysts with real familiarity have to say. This was true for Vietnam and Iraq as well. Don't read media reports or listen to what careerist generals (or even worse, politicos) have to say.
Execution by Biden team was terrible and I think they really believed the corrupt US-puppet Afghan govt could survive for months or even years (i.e., they are really stupid). Thus their exit planning was deeply flawed and events overtook them. However, even a well-planned exit strategy would likely not have avoided similar (but perhaps smaller in magnitude) tragic events like the ones we are seeing now.
ISS attack on airport was 100% predictable. I don't think most Americans (even "leaders" and "experts") understood ISS and Taliban are mortal enemies, etc. etc.
There is more of a late-stage imperial decline feel to Afghanistan and Iraq -- use of mercenaries, war profiteering, etc. -- than in Vietnam. All of these wars were tragic and unnecessary, but there really was a Cold War against an existential rival. The "war on terrorism" should always have been executed as a police / intel activity, not one involving hundreds of thousands of US soldiers.
All of this is (in part) an unavoidable cost of having intellectually weak leaders struggling with difficult problems, while subject to low-information populist democracy (this applies to both parties and even to "highly educated" coastal elites; the latter are also low-information from my perspective). This situation is only going to get worse with time for the US.
BTW, I could describe an exactly analogous situation in US higher ed (with which I am quite familiar): leaders are intellectually weak, either do not understand or understand and cynically ignore really serious problems, are mainly concerned with their own careers and not the real mission goals, are subject to volatility from external low-information interest groups, etc.
Monday, July 19, 2021
The History of the Planck Length and the Madness of Crowds
I had forgotten about the 2005-06 email correspondence reproduced below, but my collaborator Xavier Calmet reminded me of it today and I was able to find these messages.
The idea of a minimal length of order the Planck length, arising due to quantum gravity (i.e., quantum fluctuations in the structure of spacetime), is now widely accepted by theoretical physicists. But as Professor Mead (University of Minnesota, now retired) elaborates, based on his own experience, it was considered preposterous for a long time.
Large groups of people can be wrong for long periods of time -- in financial markets, academia, even theoretical physics.
Our paper, referred to by Mead, is
Minimum Length from Quantum Mechanics and Classical General RelativityX. Calmet, M. Graesser, and S. Hsu
Phys Rev Letters Vol. 93, 21101 (2004)
The related idea, first formulated by R. Buniy, A. Zee, and myself, that the structure of Hilbert Space itself is likely discrete (or "granular") at some fundamental level, is currently considered preposterous, but time will tell.
More here.
At bottom I include a relevant excerpt from correspondence with Freeman Dyson in 2005.
Dear Drs. Calmet, Graesser, Hsu,
I read with interest your article in Phys Rev Letters Vol. 93, 21101 (2004), and was pleasantly surprised to see my 1964 paper cited (second citation of your ref. 1). Not many people have cited this paper, and I think it was pretty much forgotten the day it was published, & has remained so ever since. To me, your paper shows again that, no matter how one looks at it, one runs into problems trying to measure a distance (or synchronize clocks) with greater accuracy than the Planck length (or time).
I feel rather gratified that the physics community, which back then considered the idea of the Planck length as a fundamental limitation to be quite preposterous, has since come around to (more or less) my opinion. Obviously, I deserve ZERO credit for this, since I'm sure that the people who finally reached this conclusion, whoever they were, were unaware of my work. To me, this is better than if they had been influenced by me, since it's good to know that the principles of physics lead to this conclusion, rather than the influence of an individual. I hope that makes sense. ...
You might be amused by one story about how I finally got the (first) paper published after 5 years of referee problems. A whole series of referees had claimed that my eq. (1), which is related to your eq. (1), could not be true. I suspect that they just didn't want to read any further. Nothing I could say would convince them, though I'm sure you would agree that the result is transparently obvious. So I submitted another paper which consisted of nothing but a lengthy detailed proof of eq. (1), without mentioning the connection with the gravitation paper. The referees of THAT paper rejected it on the grounds that the result was trivially obvious!! When I pointed out this discrepancy to the editors, I got the gravitation paper reconsidered and eventually published.
But back then no one considered the Planck length to be a candidate as a fundamental limitation. Well, almost no one. I did receive support from Henry Primakoff, David Bohm, and Roger Penrose. As far as I can recall, these were the only theoretical physicists of note who were willing to take this idea seriously (and I talked to many, in addition to reading the reports of all the referees).
Well anyway, I greet you, thank you for your paper and for the citation, and hope you haven't found this e-mail too boring.
Yours Sincerely,
C. Alden Mead
Dear Dr. Mead,
Thank you very much for your email message. It is fascinating to learn the history behind your work. We found your paper to be clearly written and useful.
Amusingly, we state at the beginning of our paper something like "it is widely believed..." that there is a fundamental Planck-length limit. I am sure your paper made a contribution to this change in attitude. The paper is not obscure as we were able to find it without much digging.
Your story about the vicissitudes of publishing rings true to me. I find such stories reassuring given the annoying obstacles we all face in trying to make our little contributions to science.
Finally, we intend to have a look at your second paper. Perhaps we will find another interesting application of your ideas.
Warm regards,
Stephen Hsu
Xavier Calmet
Michael Graesser
Dear Steve,
Many thanks for your kind reply. I find the information quite interesting, though as you say it leaves some historical questions unanswered. I think that Planck himself arrived at his length by purely dimensional considerations, and he supposedly considered this very important.
As you point out, it's physically very reasonable, perhaps more so in view of more recent developments. It seemed physically reasonable to me back in 1959, but not to most of the mainstream theorists of the time.
I think that physical considerations (such as yours and mine) and mathematical ones should support and complement each other. The Heisenberg-Bohr thought experiments tell us what a correct mathematical formalism should provide, and the formal quantum mechanics does this and, of course, much more. Same with the principle of equivalence and general relativity. Now, the physical ideas regarding the Planck length & time may serve as a guide in constructing a satisfactory formalism. Perhaps string theory will prove to be the answer, but I must admit that I'm ignorant of all details of that theory.
Anyway, I'm delighted to correspond with all of you as much as you wish, but I emphasize that I don't want to be intrusive or become a nuisance.
As my wife has written you (her idea, not mine), your e-mail was a nice birthday present.
Kindest Regards, Alden
... to me the most interesting is the discrete Hilbert Space paper, especially your reference [2] proving that lengths cannot be measured with error smaller than the Planck length. I was unaware of this reference but I had reached the same conclusion independently.
Tuesday, July 06, 2021
Decline of the American Empire: Afghan edition (stay tuned for more)
BAGRAM, Afghanistan (AP) — The U.S. left Afghanistan’s Bagram Airfield after nearly 20 years by shutting off the electricity and slipping away in the night without notifying the base’s new Afghan commander, who discovered the Americans’ departure more than two hours after they left, Afghan military officials said.
Afghanistan’s army showed off the sprawling air base Monday, providing a rare first glimpse of what had been the epicenter of America’s war to unseat the Taliban and hunt down the al-Qaida perpetrators of the 9/11 attacks on America. The U.S. announced Friday it had completely vacated its biggest airfield in the country in advance of a final withdrawal the Pentagon says will be completed by the end of August.
“We (heard) some rumor that the Americans had left Bagram ... and finally by seven o’clock in the morning, we understood that it was confirmed that they had already left Bagram,” Gen. Mir Asadullah Kohistani, Bagram’s new commander said. ...I wrote the following (2017) in Remarks on the Decline of American Empire:
1. US foreign policy over the last decades has been disastrous -- trillions of dollars and thousands of lives expended on Middle Eastern wars, culminating in utter defeat. This defeat is still not acknowledged among most of the media or what passes for intelligentsia in academia and policy circles, but defeat it is. Iran now exerts significant control over Iraq and a swath of land running from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean. None of the goals of our costly intervention have been achieved. We are exhausted morally, financially, and militarily, and still have not fully extricated ourselves from a useless morass. George W. Bush should go down in history as the worst US President of the modern era.
2. We are fortunate that the fracking revolution may lead to US independence from Middle Eastern energy. But policy elites have to fully recognize this possibility and pivot our strategy to reflect the decreased importance of the region. The fracking revolution is a consequence of basic research from decades ago (including investment from the Department of Energy) and the work of private sector innovators and risk-takers.
3. US budget deficits are a ticking time bomb, which cripple investment in basic infrastructure and also in research that creates strategically important new technologies like AI. US research spending has been roughly flat in inflation adjusted dollars over the last 20 years, declining as a fraction of GDP.
4. Divisive identity politics and demographic trends in the US will continue to undermine political cohesion and overall effectiveness of our institutions. ("Civilizational decline," as one leading theoretical physicist observed to me recently, remarking on our current inability to take on big science projects.)
5. The Chinese have almost entirely closed the technology gap with the West, and dominate important areas of manufacturing. It seems very likely that their economy will eventually become significantly larger than the US economy. This is the world that strategists have to prepare for. Wars involving religious fanatics in unimportant regions of the world should not distract us from a possible future conflict with a peer competitor that threatens to match or exceed our economic, technological, and even military capability.
KABUL, AFGHANISTAN—In what officials said was the "only way" to move on from what has become a "sad and unpleasant" situation, all 100,000 U.S. military and intelligence personnel crept out of their barracks in the dead of night Sunday and quietly slipped out of Afghanistan.
U.S. commanders explained their sudden pullout in a short, handwritten note left behind at Bagram Airfield, their largest base of operations in the country.
"By the time you read this, we will be gone," the note to the nation of Afghanistan read in part. "We regret any pain this may cause you, but this was something we needed to do. We couldn't go on like this forever."
"We still care about you very much, but, in the end, we feel this is for the best," the note continued. "Please, just know that we are truly sorry and that we wish you all the greatest of happiness in the future."
... After reportedly taking a "long look in the mirror" last week, senior defense officials came to the conclusion that they had "wasted a decade of [their] lives" with Afghanistan ...
Saturday, June 19, 2021
LEO SAR, hypersonics, and the death of the naval surface ship
Authors: Professor S. Chandrashekar and Professor Soma Perumal
We can state with confidence that the Yaogan satellite constellation and its associated ASBM system provide visible proof of Chinese intentions and capabilities to keep ACG strike groups well away from the Chinese mainland.
Though the immediate purpose of the system is to deter the entry of a hostile aircraft carrier fleet into waters that directly threatens its security interests especially during a possible conflict over Taiwan, the same approach can be adopted to deter entry into other areas of strategic interest.
Viewed from this perspective the Chinese do seem to have in place an operational capability for denying or deterring access into areas which it sees as crucial for preserving its sovereignty and security.
... you can make some good guesses based on physics and the technologies involved.
1. Very hard to hit a hypersonic missile that is maneuvering on its way in. It's faster than the interceptor missiles and they can't anticipate its trajectory if it, e.g., selects a random maneuver pattern.
2. I don't think there are good countermeasures for hiding the carrier from LEO SAR. I don't even think there are good countermeasures against final targeting seekers (IR/radar) on the ASBM (or a hypersonic cruise missile) but this depends on details.
3. If the satellite has the target acquired during the final approach it can transmit the coordinates to the missile in flight and the missile does not have to depend on the seeker. On the Chinese side it is claimed that the ASBM can receive both satellite and OTH radar targeting info while in flight. This seems plausible technologically, and similar capability is already present in PLAAF AAM (i.e., mid-flight targeting data link from jet which launched the AAM).
4. The radar cross section of a large ship is orders of magnitude larger than, e.g., a jet fighter. The payload of a DF21/26/17 is much larger than an AAM so I would guess the seeker could be much more powerful than the IR/AESA seeker in, e.g., PL-15 or similar. (Note PL-15 and PL-XX/21 have very long (BVR) engagement ranges, like 150km or even 400km and this is against aircraft targets, not massive ships.) The IR/radar seeker in an ASBM could be comparable to those in a jet fighter.
I seriously doubt you can hide a big ship from a hypersonic missile seeker that is much larger and more powerful than anything on an AAM, possibly as powerful as the sensors on a jet fighter.
On launch the missile will have a good fix on the target location from the satellite data. In the ~10m time of flight the uncertainty in the location of, e.g., a carrier is ~10km. So the seeker needs to find the target in a region of roughly that size, assuming no in-flight update of target location.
https://www.iiss.org/public...
https://sameerjoshi73.mediu...
Finally, keep in mind that sensor (both the missile seeker and on the satellite) and AI/ML capability are improving rapidly, so the trend is definitely against the carrier.
Wednesday, November 18, 2020
Polls, Election Predictions, Political Correctness, Bounded Cognition (2020 Edition!)
I think we should ascribe very high uncertainty to polling results in this election, for a number of reasons including the shy Trump voter effect as well as the sampling corrections applied which depend heavily on assumptions about likely turnout. ...
This is an unusual election for a number of reasons so it's quite hard to call the outcome. There's also a good chance the results on election night will be heavily contested.Eric Kaufmann is Professor of Politics at Birkbeck College, University of London.
UnHerd: ... Far from learning from the mistakes of 2016, the polling industry seemed to have got things worse. Whether conducted by private or public firms, at the national or local, presidential or senatorial, levels, polls were off by wide margins. The Five Thirty-Eight final poll of polls put Biden ahead by 8.4 points, but the actual difference in popular vote is likely to be closer to 3-4 points. In some close state races, the error was even greater.
Why did they get it so wrong? Pollsters typically receive low response rates to calls, which leads them to undercount key demographics. To get around this, they typically weight for key categories like race, education or gender. If they get too few Latinos or whites without degrees, they adjust their numbers to match the actual electorate. But most attitudes vary far more within a group like university graduates, than between graduates and non-graduates. So even if you have the correct share of graduates and non-graduates, you might be selecting the more liberal-minded among them.
For example, in the 2019 American National Election Study pilot survey, education level predicts less than 1% of the variation in whether a white person voted for Trump in 2016. By contrast, their feelings towards illegal immigrants on a 0-100 thermometer predicts over 30% of the variation. Moreover, immigration views pick out Trump from Clinton voters better within the university-educated white population than among high school-educated whites. Unless pollsters weight for attitudes and psychology – which is tricky because these positions can be caused by candidate support – they miss much of the action.
Looking at this election’s errors — which seems to have been concentrated among white college graduates — I wonder if political correctness lies at the heart of the problem.
... According to a Pew survey on October 9, Trump was leading Biden by 21 points among white non-graduates but trailing him by 26 points among white graduates. Likewise, a Politico/ABC poll on October 11 found that ‘Trump leads by 26 points among white voters without four-year college degrees, but Biden holds a 31-point lead with white college graduates.’ The exit polls, however, show that Trump ran even among white college graduates 49-49, and even had an edge among white female graduates of 50-49! This puts pre-election surveys out by a whopping 26-31 points among white graduates. By contrast, among whites without degrees, the actual tilt in the election was 64-35, a 29-point gap, which the polls basically got right.See also this excellent podcast interview with Kaufmann: Shy Trump Voters And The Blue Wave That Wasn’t
Bloomberg: ... “Shy Trump voters are only part of the equation. The other part is poll deniers,” said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster. “Trump spent the last four years beating the crap out of polls, telling people they were fake, and a big proportion of his supporters just said, ‘I’m not participating.’”
In a survey conducted after Nov. 3, Newhouse found that 19% of people who voted for Trump had kept their support secret from most of their friends. And it’s not that they were on the fence: They gave Trump a 100% approval rating and most said they made up their minds before Labor Day.
Suburbanites, moderates and college-educated voters — especially women — were more likely to report that they had been ostracized or blocked on social media for their support of Trump. ...
... University of Arkansas economist Andy Brownback conducted experiments in 2016 that allowed respondents to hide their support for Trump in a list of statements that could be statistically reconstructed. He found people who lived in counties that voted for Clinton were less likely to explicitly state they agreed with Trump.
“I get a little frustrated with the dismissiveness of social desirability bias among pollsters,” said “I just don’t see a reason you could say this is a total non-issue, especially when one candidate has proven so difficult to poll.”
Thursday, October 22, 2020
Replications of Height Genomic Prediction: Harvard, Stanford, 23andMe
Efficient cross-trait penalized regression increases prediction accuracy in large cohorts using secondary phenotypes
Wonil Chung, Jun Chen, Constance Turman, Sara Lindstrom, Zhaozhong Zhu, Po-Ru Loh, Peter Kraft and Liming Liang
Nature Communications volume 10, Article number: 569 (2019)
We introduce cross-trait penalized regression (CTPR), a powerful and practical approach for multi-trait polygenic risk prediction in large cohorts. Specifically, we propose a novel cross-trait penalty function with the Lasso and the minimax concave penalty (MCP) to incorporate the shared genetic effects across multiple traits for large-sample GWAS data. Our approach extracts information from the secondary traits that is beneficial for predicting the primary trait based on individual-level genotypes and/or summary statistics. Our novel implementation of a parallel computing algorithm makes it feasible to apply our method to biobank-scale GWAS data. We illustrate our method using large-scale GWAS data (~1M SNPs) from the UK Biobank (N = 456,837). We show that our multi-trait method outperforms the recently proposed multi-trait analysis of GWAS (MTAG) for predictive performance. The prediction accuracy for height by the aid of BMI improves from R2 = 35.8% (MTAG) to 42.5% (MCP + CTPR) or 42.8% (Lasso + CTPR) with UK Biobank data.
2. This is a 2019 Stanford paper. Tibshirani and Hastie are famous researchers in statistics and machine learning. Figure is from their paper.
A Fast and Flexible Algorithm for Solving the Lasso in Large-scale and Ultrahigh-dimensional Problems
Junyang Qian, Wenfei Du, Yosuke Tanigawa, Matthew Aguirre, Robert Tibshirani, Manuel A. Rivas, Trevor Hastie
1Department of Statistics, Stanford University 2Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University
Since its first proposal in statistics (Tibshirani, 1996), the lasso has been an effective method for simultaneous variable selection and estimation. A number of packages have been developed to solve the lasso efficiently. However as large datasets become more prevalent, many algorithms are constrained by efficiency or memory bounds. In this paper, we propose a meta algorithm batch screening iterative lasso (BASIL) that can take advantage of any existing lasso solver and build a scalable lasso solution for large datasets. We also introduce snpnet, an R package that implements the proposed algorithm on top of glmnet (Friedman et al., 2010a) for large-scale single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) datasets that are widely studied in genetics. We demonstrate results on a large genotype-phenotype dataset from the UK Biobank, where we achieve state-of-the-art heritability estimation on quantitative and qualitative traits including height, body mass index, asthma and high cholesterol.
Sunday, October 04, 2020
Genomic Prediction and Embryo Selection (video panel discussion)
Wikipedia: ...During these controversial early years of IVF, Fishel and his colleagues received extensive opposition from critics both outside of and within the medical and scientific communities, including a civil writ for murder.[16] Fishel has since stated that "the whole establishment was outraged" by their early work and that people thought that he was "potentially a mad scientist".[17]I predict that within 5 years the use of polygenic risk scores will become common in some health systems and in IVF. Reasonable people will wonder why the technology was ever controversial at all, just as in the case of IVF.
Saturday, September 12, 2020
Orwell: 1944, 1984, and Today
... Already history has in a sense ceased to exist, i.e. there is no such thing as a history of our own times which could be universally accepted, and the exact sciences are endangered as soon as military necessity ceases to keep people up to the mark. Hitler can say that the Jews started the war, and if he survives that will become official history. He can’t say that two and two are five, because for the purposes of, say, ballistics they have to make four. But if the sort of world that I am afraid of arrives, a world of two or three great superstates which are unable to conquer one another, two and two could become five if the fuhrer wished it. That, so far as I can see, is the direction in which we are actually moving ...
... intellectuals are more totalitarian in outlook than the common people. On the whole the English intelligentsia have opposed Hitler, but only at the price of accepting Stalin. Most of them are perfectly ready for dictatorial methods, secret police, systematic falsification of history etc. so long as they feel that it is on ‘our’ side.
there is no such thing as a history of our own times which could be universally accepted
the exact sciences are endangered
two and two could become five
dictatorial methods ... systematic falsification of history etc. so long as they feel that it is on ‘our’ side.
Of course, there is nothing new under the sun. It takes only a generation for costly lessons to be entirely forgotten...
Wikipedia: Trofim Denisovich Lysenko ...Soviet agronomist and biologist. Lysenko was a strong proponent of soft inheritance and rejected Mendelian genetics in favor of pseudoscientific ideas termed Lysenkoism.[1][2] In 1940, Lysenko became director of the Institute of Genetics within the USSR's Academy of Sciences, and he used his political influence and power to suppress dissenting opinions and discredit, marginalize, and imprison his critics, elevating his anti-Mendelian theories to state-sanctioned doctrine.
Soviet scientists who refused to renounce genetics were dismissed from their posts and left destitute. Hundreds if not thousands of others were imprisoned. Several were sentenced to death as enemies of the state, including the botanist Nikolai Vavilov. Scientific dissent from Lysenko's theories of environmentally acquired inheritance was formally outlawed in the Soviet Union in 1948. As a result of Lysenkoism and forced collectivization, 15-30 million Soviet and Chinese citizens starved to death in the Holodomor and the Great Chinese Famine. ...
In 1964, physicist Andrei Sakharov spoke out against Lysenko in the General Assembly of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR: "He is responsible for the shameful backwardness of Soviet biology and of genetics in particular, for the dissemination of pseudo-scientific views, for adventurism, for the degradation of learning, and for the defamation, firing, arrest, even death, of many genuine scientists."
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