tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-58806102024-03-15T21:10:42.057-04:00Information ProcessingPessimism of the Intellect, Optimism of the Will
<a href="http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2009/09/some-favorite-posts.html"> Favorite posts</a> | <a href="http://manifold1.com/">Manifold podcast</a> | Twitter: <a href="http://twitter.com/hsu_steve">@hsu_steve</a>Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.comBlogger3361125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-20704109832520985932024-03-11T08:44:00.001-04:002024-03-11T08:44:15.055-04:00Solving the Hallucination Problem - interview with AppliedAI Recent podcast interview with AppliedAI. We discuss SuperFocus.ai Enterprise GPT. Good intro to how customer-defined AI/LLM memory eliminates hallucinations.Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-6671460445688872002024-03-07T07:21:00.001-05:002024-03-09T18:47:51.954-05:00Stephen Grugett: Predicting the Future with Manifold Markets — Manifold #55
Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more. Steve and Stephen discuss: 0:00 Introduction 0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background 5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets 11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement 20:47 Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-46061505548163283412024-03-07T07:16:00.003-05:002024-03-07T07:16:10.422-05:00Elizabeth Carr (first US IVF baby) and Genomic Prediction in WSJElizabeth Carr (first US IVF baby) and Genomic Prediction in the Wall Street Journal.
Elizabeth Carr has always been a living symbol of fertility technology’s possibilities. Now she is the face of its challenges.
Carr, 42 years old, is the first baby born by in vitro fertilization in the U.S. Over the years she has told countless audiences how the technology made it possible for her mother Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-78963571434829655012024-02-28T14:41:00.004-05:002024-02-28T18:22:50.513-05:00Awakening Siddhartha (podcast interview) Really fun conversation! Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 02:21 Steve's Encounter with Richard Feynman 03:31 Discussion on Genetics and Human Improvement 11:08 The Role of Genetics in Disease Prediction 18:10 Understanding the Influence of Genetics on Behaviour 21:37 The Future of Genetic Selection in Embryos 39:24 The Role of Genetics in Addiction Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-58547019561101326372024-02-22T07:45:00.003-05:002024-02-22T07:45:25.142-05:00Ray McGovern: CIA, JFK, Deep State, and Ukraine Crisis — Manifold #54 Raymond McGovern is a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst, serving from 1963 to 1990. His CIA career began under President John F. Kennedy and lasted through the presidency of George H. W. Bush. McGovern advised Henry Kissinger during the Richard Nixon administration, and during the Ronald Reagan administration he chaired National Intelligence Estimates and prepared the Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-73416907822102226442024-02-08T07:54:00.002-05:002024-02-08T07:54:49.816-05:00Lecture: Fermi Paradox, AI, Simulation Question — Manifold #53 This lecture covers DNA and the origin of life on Earth, the Fermi Paradox (is there alien life?), AI and its implications for the Simulation Question: Could our universe be a simulation? Are we machines, but don't know it? Slides: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CrWLiKYhLbDLG8yTOBySrsKrzAUbV-FES1toeJL-UWE/edit?usp=sharing Further discussion of the Simulation Question in lightSteve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-35121307649309250352024-02-05T11:31:00.002-05:002024-02-05T11:31:34.575-05:00Superhumans and the Race for AI Supremacy - Hidden Forces podcast Episode 351 I've been listening to Hidden Forces with Demetri Kofinas for years now. He's an excellent interviewer with interests in finance, geopolitics, technology and more.Audio-only version.
In Episode 351 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Stephen Hsu, a Professor of Theoretical Physics and Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-38045835951094497352024-01-25T06:49:00.003-05:002024-01-25T06:49:47.222-05:00Utah AG Sean Reyes: “Sound of Freedom” and Human Trafficking — Manifold #52 Sean Reyes is Utah Attorney General and a producer for the movie “Sound of Freedom.” Steve and Sean discuss his personal story, human trafficking, and the role of technology in law enforcement. More on Reyes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Reyes NOTE: Reyes has announced that he will not seek re-election as Utah AG: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEEj4UgjDL4 00:00 Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-80861274402195276022024-01-24T08:08:00.002-05:002024-01-24T22:37:49.110-05:00SuperFocus, AI, and Philippine Call Centers: Part 2
This is the sequel to the earlier conversation with Dominic Ligot, an AI expert who works with the IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines (IBPAP), the trade association for call center and outsourcing companies. In this video we briefly demonstrate some of the voice capabilities of the SuperFocus AI. Progress in generative AI is faster than anything I've ever seen Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-17069694702177713652024-01-16T12:12:00.008-05:002024-02-01T08:22:26.938-05:00Upstream podcast with Erik Torenberg: Steve Hsu on the Future of Everything Great conversation with Erik, a well-known SV Founder and investor. TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (02:01) Political polarization in academia (05:27) The decline of meritocracy in academia (09:40) Why can't academia change? (13:07) Truth-seeking in startups (20:16) Sponsors | Shopify | Givewell (23:16) The fertility crisis (31:51) AI and labor (Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-19407772529541095452024-01-11T08:06:00.000-05:002024-01-11T08:06:06.750-05:00Military Technology and U.S.-China War in the Pacific — Manifold #51 TP Huang returns for the third time to discuss US-China strategic competition and military technology. Audio-Only version and Transcript: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/military-technology-and-u-s-china-war-in-the-pacific-51Previous episodes with TP include: China's EV Market Dominance and the Challenges Facing Tesla — #48:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-71966672325173372012024-01-03T08:28:00.006-05:002024-01-03T08:47:13.257-05:00SuperFocus, AI, and Philippine Call Centers This is a conversation with Dominic Ligot, an AI expert who works with the IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines (IBPAP), the trade association for call center and outsourcing companies. I was in Manila in December to meet with BPO companies. We demonstrated narrow AIs built using LLMs, but in which the LLM is forced to "consult its internal memory" before answering Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-44634774915908799182023-12-24T13:42:00.005-05:002023-12-25T17:17:05.263-05:00Peace on Earth, Good Will to Men 2023
When asked what I want for Christmas, I reply: Peace On Earth, Good Will To Men :-)
No one ever seems to recognize that this comes from the Bible (Luke 2.14).
Linus said it best in A Charlie Brown Christmas:
And there were in the same country shepherds abiding in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night.
And, lo, the angel of the Lord came upon them, and the glory of the Lord Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-42351485061093821782023-12-16T09:07:00.001-05:002023-12-16T09:07:25.637-05:00Louis-Vincent Gave: Understanding China’s Economy, and U.S. Competition — Manifold #50 Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal discusses China's economic growth, its focus on education, and the global implications of its economic and political policies. https://research.gavekal.com/ Steve and Louis discuss: (00:00) - Early life - Gave as French infantry officer (14:42) - Founding Gavekal (23:50) - Understanding China economic growth (32:57) - China Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-38576165629816858442023-12-13T00:53:00.009-05:002023-12-16T18:58:34.121-05:00PISA 2023 and the Gloomy ProspectI'm in the Philippines now. I flew here after the semester ended, in order to meet with outsourcing (BPO = Business Process Outsourcing) companies that run call centers for global brands. This industry accounts for ~8% of Philippine GPD (~$40B per annum), driven by comparative advantages such as the widespread use of English here and relatively low wages. I predict that AIs of the type Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-24904684426328593172023-11-30T10:32:00.003-05:002023-11-30T10:32:26.294-05:00Charles Miller: Satellite Technology and the Future of Mobile Connectivity — Manifold #49 Charles Miller is co-founder and CEO of Lynk. He is a serial space entrepreneur with 30 years of experience in the space industry. Lynk - https://lynk.world/ 0:00 Introduction and guest background 1:27 Miller's early passion for space 3:54 Evolution of commercial space 6:42 Impact of Elon Musk and SpaceX 8:01 The challenges of early stage startups 11:26 Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-22485327360776241622023-11-16T07:43:00.005-05:002023-11-16T07:55:05.006-05:00China's EV Market Dominance and the Challenges Facing Tesla — Manifold #48 TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://x.com/tphuang. The EV tipping point has arrived in China. Even most techology experts do not appreciate the coming huge impacts on global economics, manufacturing, energy transition, etc.Chapters:0:00 Introduction 2:21 How TP Huang became interested in electric vehiclesSteve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-33003786412766234752023-11-09T12:18:00.000-05:002023-11-09T12:18:15.568-05:00Hypersonic Weapons and Missile DefenseDetailed analysis of boost-glide (BGV) and Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicles (MaRV): physics of interception by US SM-2,3 etc.
Hypersonic Weapons: Vulnerability to Missile Defenses and Comparison to MaRVs
David Wright and Cameron L. Tracy
Laboratory for Nuclear Security and Policy, Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Center for Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-29248294737294780792023-11-02T07:53:00.003-04:002023-11-02T07:53:56.032-04:00Taylor Ogan, Snow Bull Capital: China's tech frontier, the view from Shenzhen — Manifold #47 I really enjoyed this conversation. Taylor is a very unique investor who relocated his fund to Shenzhen in order to have direct access to information on Chinese tech companies.Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China. Follow him on X @TaylorOgan. Steve and Taylor discuss: 0:00 Introduction 1:02 Taylor's background and Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-41934902241766217312023-10-29T09:14:00.001-04:002023-10-29T09:14:12.131-04:00The Future of Intelligence: An Interview with Steve Hsu (The Latecomer Magazine)
These are excerpts from a recent interview that appeared in the first issue of the new magazine The Latecomer. Read the whole thing!
The Future of Intelligence: An Interview with Steve HsuSteve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-62243621741877279842023-10-26T07:43:00.003-04:002023-10-26T07:46:13.606-04:00Paradise Lost - Migdal, Polyakov, and LandauThis is a placeholder for a longer post I hope to expand on in the future, based on this essay: Paradise Lost - Alexander Migdal Migdal and Polyakov were two of the great Soviet physicists of their generation. Polyakov is on the upper left and Migdal the lower right.Wikipedia: Migdal, Polyakov. The essay describes their education as young physicists. They were examined by Landau Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-63405295313522980212023-10-22T10:10:00.006-04:002023-10-22T13:38:28.449-04:00Abdus Salam and the Pakistan Nuclear Weapons ProgramAfter my conversation with Bharat Karnad about the Indian nuclear arsenal I became curious about Pakistan's nuclear program. See Bharat Karnad: India geostrategy, nuclear arsenal, and assassination of Homi Bhabha, the Oppenheimer of India — Manifold #46
I came across this historical analysis: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1112.2266.pdfAbdus Salam: A Reappraisal. Part II Salam's Part in the Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-75925017003117185122023-10-19T06:04:00.005-04:002023-10-20T18:26:52.173-04:00Bharat Karnad: India geostrategy, nuclear arsenal, and assassination of Homi Bhabha, the Oppenheimer of India — Manifold #46 Bharat Karnad is an Emeritus Professor in National Security Studies at the Center for Policy Research in Delhi. He was a member of India's first National Security Advisory Board and has authored several books on nuclear weapons and Indian security. Karnad's blog: https://bharatkarnad.com/ Karnad on the death of Homi Bhabha and of other atomic weapons scientists:
https://Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-91969473608836318622023-10-11T19:31:00.003-04:002023-10-11T19:31:27.723-04:00Quantum Hair During Gravitational Collapse (published version in Physical Review D)https://journals.aps.org/prd/pdf/10.1103/PhysRevD.108.086012
This is a follow up to our earlier work on quantum gravitational corrections to the exterior graviton field of a compact object, also known as quantum hair. Here we follow the gravitational collapse of a dust ball and show that the quantum hair persists through the formation of a black hole horizon.
The detailed calculations are Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-53812005450406585692023-10-10T15:09:00.005-04:002023-10-16T09:53:00.953-04:00SMPY 65: Help support the SMPY Longitudinal StudyThe Study of Mathematically Precocious Youth (SMPY) needs your help to support the Age-65 phase of their unique longitudinal study.
For decades, co-directed by David Lubinski and Camilla P. Benbow, SMPY has been a beacon of enlightenment, tracking five cohorts comprising over 5,000 remarkably gifted individuals. In doing so, we have unraveled the secrets to nurturing brilliance. However, Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.com0