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Thursday, April 04, 2024
Casey Handmer: Terraform Industries and a Carbon-Neutral Future — Manifold #57
Thursday, October 26, 2023
Paradise Lost - Migdal, Polyakov, and Landau
Migdal: Khalat was a genius of political intrigue. Being married into Inner Circle of the Soviet System (his wife Valya is the daughter of a legendary Revolution hero), he used all his connections and all the means to achieve his secret goal — assemble the best brains and let them Think Freely.
On the surface, his pitch to the Party went as follows. “The West is attacking us for anti-Semitism. The best way to counter this slander is to create an Institute, where Jews are accepted, allowed to travel abroad and generally look happy. This can be a very small Institute, by standards of Atomic Project, it will have no secret military research, it will cost you very little, but it will help “Rasryadka” (Détente). These Jews will be so happy, they will tell all their Jewish friends in the West how well they live. And if they won’t –it is after all, us who decide which one goes abroad and which one stays home. They are smart kids, they will figure out which side of the toast is buttered.”
As I put it, Khalat sold half of his soul to Devil and used the money to save another half. I truly respect him for that, now once I learned what it takes to create a startup and try to protect it against hostile world.
As many crazy plans before it, this plan really worked. Best brains were assembled in Landau Institute, they were given a chance to happily solve problems without being forced to eat political shit like the whole country and – yes, they sometimes traveled abroad and made friends in the West.
In a way the plan worked too well — we became so worldly and so free that we could no longer be controlled. And, needless to say, our friends in the West became closer to us that our curators in KGB.I was in the 1990s generation of American physicists who had to contend on the job market with a stream of great theorists from the former Soviet Union. Both Migdal and Polyakov ended up at Princeton, and there were many others in their wake, closer to my age.
Sunday, October 22, 2023
Abdus Salam and the Pakistan Nuclear Weapons Program
Abdus Salam: A Reappraisal. Part II Salam's Part in the Pakistani Nuclear Weapon ProgrammeSalam's biographies claim that he was opposed to Pakistan's nuclear weapon programme. This is somewhat strange given that he was the senior Science Advisor to the Pakistan government for at least some of the period between 1972 when the programme was initiated and 1998 when a successful nuclear weapon test was carried out. I look at the evidence for his participation in the programme.
Salam shared the Nobel Prize with Glashow and Weinberg. He is a leading theoretician, although many have questioned what, exactly, was his contribution to the formulation of the electroweak theory of particle physics that Glashow and Weinberg contributed to.
Currently Pakistan's arsenal is ~200 warheads and similar in size to India's. Their largest warhead is estimated to have a yield of ~40kt, compared to ~20kt for the Indians.
What interested me the most was Salam's role in the early stages of the project.
See the paper for more interesting details. Previously I was only aware of Riazuddin through his academic publications, not his weapons work.
I mentioned to Karnad that I had been surprised that some of the Iranin theoreticians assassinated by Israel over the last 10-15 years had quite abstract research interests. They didn't seem the type to be working on bombs - but I suppose you never know!
Tuesday, October 10, 2023
SMPY 65: Help support the SMPY Longitudinal Study
The Study of Mathematically Precocious Youth (SMPY) needs your help to support the Age-65 phase of their unique longitudinal study.
• Prodigies destined for eminent careers can be identified as early as age 13.
• There is no plateau of ability; even within the top 1%, variations in mathematical, spatial, and verbal abilities profoundly impact educational, occupational, and creative outcomes.
• The blend of specific abilities, such as mathematical, spatial, and verbal aptitudes, shapes the nature of one's accomplishments and career trajectory.
More information:
Indicate "Please designate this gift to Study of Mathematically Precocious Youth" in the Special Instructions.
Wednesday, August 30, 2023
The World of Yesterday: Steve Hsu on polygenic scores, gene editing, human flourishing
Thursday, August 10, 2023
AI on your phone? Tim Dettmers on quantization of neural networks — Manifold #41
Tuesday, September 20, 2022
Sibling Variation in Phenotype and Genotype: Polygenic Trait Distributions and DNA Recombination Mapping with UK Biobank and IVF Family Data (medRxiv)
Sibling Variation in Phenotype and Genotype: Polygenic Trait Distributions and DNA Recombination Mapping with UK Biobank and IVF Family Data
L. Lello, M. Hsu, E. Widen, and T. Raben
We use UK Biobank and a unique IVF family dataset (including genotyped embryos) to investigate sibling variation in both phenotype and genotype. We compare phenotype (disease status, height, blood biomarkers) and genotype (polygenic scores, polygenic health index) distributions among siblings to those in the general population. As expected, the between-siblings standard deviation in polygenic scores is \sqrt{2} times smaller than in the general population, but variation is still significant. As previously demonstrated, this allows for substantial benefit from polygenic screening in IVF. Differences in sibling genotypes result from distinct recombination patterns in sexual reproduction. We develop a novel sibling-pair method for detection of recombination breaks via statistical discontinuities. The new method is used to construct a dataset of 1.44 million recombination events which may be useful in further study of meiosis.
Here are some figures illustrating the variation of polygenic scores among siblings from the same family.
The excerpt below describes the IVF family highlighted in blue above:
Among the families displayed in these figures, at position number 15 from the left, we encounter an interesting case of sibling polygenic distribution relative to the parents. In the family all siblings have significantly higher Health Index score than the parents. This arises in an interesting manner: the mother is a high-risk outlier for condition X and the father is a high-risk outlier for condition Y. (We do not specify X and Y, out of an abundance of caution for privacy, although the patients have consented that such information could be shared.) Their lower overall Health Index scores result from high risk of conditions X (mother) and Y (father). However, the embryos, each resulting from unique recombination of parental genotypes, are normal risk for both X and Y and each embryo has much higher Health Index score than the parents.This case illustrates well the potential benefits from PGS embryo screening.
The second part of the paper introduces a new technique that directly probes DNA recombination -- the molecular mechanism responsible for sibling genetic differences. See figure above for some results. The new method detects recombination breaks via statistical discontinuities in pairwise comparisons of DNA regions.
...This new sibling-pair method can be applied to large datasets with many thousands of sibling pairs. In this project we created a map of roughly 1.44 million recombination events using UKB genomes. Similar maps can now be created using other biobank data, including in non-European ancestry groups that have not yet received sufficient attention. The landmark deCODE results were obtained under special circumstances: the researchers had access to data resulting from a nationwide project utilizing genealogical records (unusually prevalent in Iceland) and widespread sequencing. Using the sibling-pair method results of comparable accuracy can be obtained from existing datasets around the world -- e.g., national biobanks in countries such as the USA, Estonia, China, Taiwan, Japan, etc.
Sunday, August 14, 2022
Tweet Treats: AI in PRC, Semiconductors and the Russian War Machine, Wordcels are Midwits
Tsinghua University (dad's alma mater) seems to be the only academic institution in the world keeping up with big corp labs like OpenAI, Google Brain / DeepMind, Baidu, etc. in large AI models.
— steve hsu (@hsu_steve) August 12, 2022
(NB: partnership with AI startup. Similar US examples?)https://t.co/lFjMBbVU7p pic.twitter.com/0il2R2iE2s
Wordcels (e.g., in policy or geostrategy) have mystical ideas re: at-scale AI research, mistakenly linking progress to lone geniuses / democracy / open society..
— steve hsu (@hsu_steve) August 12, 2022
They don't realize it's an engineering problem that requires *very* capable teams, but well within PRC capability 🤔
RUSI report: semiconductor content of Russian weapons. Snapshot below from conclusions.
— steve hsu (@hsu_steve) August 14, 2022
Miltech almost never uses leading edge (e.g., 7nm) chips. Much older e.g. 200nm process sufficient. RUS can source from PRC or use sanction evasion networks...https://t.co/ol5cpTPA0l pic.twitter.com/bdL4SqEn4f
I quote "expert" reports like this because wordcels / midwits can't reason from first principles.
— steve hsu (@hsu_steve) August 14, 2022
Right-tail obvious inferences which go against conventional wisdom ("sanctions will crush RUS economy and war machine!" "UKR will win!") need to be "sourced" from "real experts" 🤔
On midwits and wordcels: g factor depends on M,V,S. If only V is high while M,S are mediocre, implies total g is ony in midwit range even if V (ability to make vacuous but impressive sounding BS arguments) is exceptional.
— steve hsu (@hsu_steve) August 14, 2022
See Stephen J. Gould!https://t.co/958kZW7MIb pic.twitter.com/pqwQywyTWc
Yes. Chips RUS needs for weapons cost ~$1 these days & can be sourced widely. Plus PRC is on the verge of indigenous 7nm.
— steve hsu (@hsu_steve) August 14, 2022
Confusion reveals Dunning Kruger nature of our punditry and political (even strategic) leadership.
Plenty more strategic confusion:https://t.co/u2Zwk18z10 pic.twitter.com/ML4YXs0bbi
Tuesday, May 03, 2022
How We Learned, Then Forgot, About Human Intelligence... And Witnessing the Live Breakdown of Academia (podcast interview with Cactus Chu)
Timestamps:
3:24 Interview Starts
15:49 Cactus' Experience with High Math People
19:49 High School Sports
21:26 Comparison to Intelligence
26:29 Is Lack of Understanding due to Denial or Ignorance?
29:29 The Past and Present of Selection in Academia
37:02 How Universities Look from the Inside
44:19 Informal Networks Replacing Credentials
48:37 Capture of Research Positions
50:24 Progressivism as Demagoguery Against the Self-Made
55:31 Innumeracy is Common
1:06:53 Understanding Innumerate People
1:13:53 Skill Alignment at Cactus' High School
1:18:12 Free Speech in Academia
1:21:00 You Shouldn't Fire Exceptional People
1:23:03 The Anti-Excellence Progressives
1:28:42 Rawls, Nozick, and Technology
1:34:00 Freedom = Variance = Inequality
1:37:58 Dating Apps
1:41:27 Jumping Into Social Problems From a Technical Background
1:41:50 Steve's High School Pranks
1:46:43 996 and Cactus' High School
1:50:26 The Vietnam War and Social Change
1:53:07 Are Podcasts the Future?
1:59:37 The Power of New Things
2:02:56 The Birth of Twitter
2:07:27 Selection Creates Quality
2:10:21 Incentives of University Departments
2:16:29 Woke Bureaucrats
2:27:59 Building a New University
2:30:42 What needs more order?
2:31:56 What needs more chaos?
@hsu_steve on innumerate journalists, professors, and politicians:
— Cactus Chu (@cactus_chu) May 3, 2022
"If you are not high [Math], you cannot reason from statistical data" pic.twitter.com/N3glUITCXH
Monday, March 14, 2022
"The Pressure to Conform is Enormous": Steve Hsu on Affirmative Action, Assimilation and IQ Outliers (CSPI Podcast with Richard Hanania)
Full transcript at Richard's substack.Begin: American society, growing up as child of immigrants18m: Russia-Ukraine conflict (eve of invasion), geopolitical implications (China, India, Germany, EU)38m: Affirmative Action, Harvard case at SCOTUS54m: Woke leftists at the university, destruction of meritocracy, STEM vs Social Justice advocacy, Sokal Hoax1h25m: Academic economics, 2008 credit crisis, Do economists test theories?1h33m: Maverick thinking, Agreeableness, Aspergers, Pressure to conform1h39m: Far-tail intelligence, Jeff Bezos and physics, progress in science and technology
Friday, December 03, 2021
Adventures of a Mathematician: Ulam, von Karman, Wiener, and the Golem
[Ulam] ... In Israel many years later, while I was visiting the town of Safed with von Kárman, an old Orthodox Jewish guide with earlocks showed me the tomb of Caro in an old graveyard. When I told him that I was related to a Caro, he fell on his knees... Aunt Caro was directly related to the famous Rabbi Loew of sixteenth-century Prague, who, the legend says, made the Golem — the earthen giant who was protector of the Jews. (Once, when I mentioned this connection with the Golem to Norbert Wiener, he said, alluding to my involvement with Los Alamos and with the H-bomb, "It is still in the family!")
One night in early 1945, just back from Los Alamos, vN woke in a state of alarm in the middle of the night and told his wife Klari:
"... we are creating ... a monster whose influence is going to change history ... this is only the beginning! The energy source which is now being made available will make scientists the most hated and most wanted citizens in any country. The world could be conquered, but this nation of puritans will not grab its chance; we will be able to go into space way beyond the moon if only people could keep pace with what they create ..."
He then predicted the future indispensable role of automation, becoming so agitated that he had to be put to sleep by a strong drink and sleeping pills.
In his obituary for John von Neumann, Ulam recalled a conversation with vN about the
"... ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue."
This is the origin of the concept of technological singularity. Perhaps we can even trace it to that night in 1945 :-)
[p.107] I told Banach about an expression Johnny had used with me in Princeton before stating some non-Jewish mathematician's result, "Die Goim haben den folgenden satz beweisen" (The goys have proved the following theorem). Banach, who was pure goy, thought it was one of the funniest sayings he had ever heard. He was enchanted by its implication that if the goys could do it, then Johnny and I ought to be able to do it better. Johnny did not invent this joke, but he liked it and we started using it.
Thursday, October 21, 2021
PRC Hypersonic Missiles, FOBS, and Qian Xuesen
"It was the stupidest thing this country ever did," former Navy Secretary Dan Kimball later said, according to Aviation Week. "He was no more a Communist than I was, and we forced him to go." ...
Qian Xuesen, a former Caltech rocket scientist who helped establish the Jet Propulsion Laboratory before being deported in 1955 on suspicion of being a Communist and who became known as the father of China's space and missile programs, has died. He was 98. ...
Qian, a Chinese-born aeronautical engineer educated at Caltech and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, was a protege of Caltech's eminent professor Theodore von Karman, who recognized him as an outstanding mathematician and "undisputed genius."
Tuesday, August 17, 2021
John Preskill interview by Sean Carroll
I'm an Everettian...
I'm comfortable with nothing happening in the world besides unitary evolution ...
Measurement isn't something fundamentally different. ...
It seems minimal: you know there's nothing happening but the Schrodinger equation and things are evolving, and if we can reconcile that with what we observe about physics ...
In Ten Years of Quantum Coherence and Decoherence I listed a number of prominent theorists who have expressed some degree of belief in many worlds.
Q1. (largely mathematical): Does the phenomenology of pure state evolution in a closed system (e.g., the universe) reproduce Copenhagen for observers in the system?
This is a question about dynamical evolution: of the system as a whole, and of various interacting subsystems. It's not a philosophical question and, in my opinion, it is what theorists should focus on first. Although complicated, it is still reasonably well-posed from a mathematical perspective, at least as far as foundational physics questions go.
I believe the evidence is strong that the answer to #1 is Yes, although the issue of the Born rule lingers (too complicated to discuss here, but see various papers I have written on the topic, along with other people like Deutsch, Zurek, etc.). It is clear from Weinberg's writing that he and I agree that the answer is Yes, modulo the Born rule.
Define this position to be
Y* := "Yes, possibly modulo Born"
There are some theorists who do not agree with Y* (see the survey results above), but they are mostly people who have not thought it through carefully, in my opinion.
I don't know of any explicit arguments for how Y* fails, and our recent results applying the vN QET strengthen my confidence in Y*.
I believe (based on published remarks or from my personal interactions) that the following theorists have opinions that are Y* or stronger: Schwinger, DeWitt, Wheeler, Deutsch, Hawking, Feynman, Gell-Mann, Zeh, Hartle, Weinberg, Zurek, Guth, Preskill, Page, Cooper (BCS), Coleman, Misner, Arkani-Hamed, etc.
But there is a generational issue, with many older (some now deceased!) theorists being reticent about expressing Y* even if they believe it. This is shifting over time and, for example, a poll of younger string theorists or quantum cosmologists would likely find a strong majority expressing Y*.
[ Social conformity and groupthink are among the obstacles preventing broader understanding of Q1. That is, in part, why I have listed specific high profile individuals as having reached the unconventional but correct view! ]
Monday, July 26, 2021
Farewell, Big Steve
Wikipedia: It is a story widely told that Steven Weinberg, who inherited Schwinger's paneled office in Lyman Laboratory (Harvard Physics department), there found a pair of old shoes, with the implied message, "think you can fill these?"
In this public lecture Weinberg explains the problems with the two predominant interpretations of quantum mechanics, which he refers to as Instrumentalist (e.g., Copenhagen) and Realist (e.g., Many Worlds). The term "interpretation" may be misleading because what is ultimately at stake is the nature of physical reality. Both interpretations have serious problems, but the problem with Realism (in Weinberg's view, and my own) is not the quantum multiverse, but rather the origin of probability within deterministic Schrodinger evolution. Instrumentalism is, of course, ill-defined nutty mysticism 8-)
Physicists will probably want to watch this at 1.5x or 2x speed. The essential discussion is at roughly 22-40min, so it's only a 10 minute investment of your time. These slides explain in pictures.
See also Weinberg on Quantum Foundations, where I wrote:
It is a shame that very few working physicists, even theoreticians, have thought carefully and deeply about quantum foundations. Perhaps Weinberg's fine summary will stimulate greater awareness of this greatest of all unresolved problems in science.and quoted Weinberg:
... today there is no interpretation of quantum mechanics that does not have serious flaws.Posts on this blog related to the Born Rule, etc., and two of my papers:
The measure problem in many worlds quantum mechanics
On the origin of probability in quantum mechanics
Dynamical theories of wavefunction collapse are necessarily non-linear generalizations of Schrodinger evolution, which lead to problems with locality.
Among those who take the Realist position seriously: Feynman and Gell-Mann, Schwinger, Hawking, and many more.
Wednesday, May 26, 2021
How Dominic Cummings And The Warner Brothers Saved The UK
Wednesday, February 03, 2021
Gerald Feinberg and The Prometheus Project
Monday, January 11, 2021
Global AI Talent Flows
For its December 2019 conference, NeurIPS saw a record-breaking 15,920 researchers submit 6,614 papers, with a paper acceptance rate of 21.6%, making it one of the largest, most popular, and most selective AI conferences on record.
Key Takeaways
1. The United States has a large lead over all other countries in top-tier AI research, with nearly 60% of top-tier researchers working for American universities and companies. The US lead is built on attracting international talent, with more than two-thirds of the top-tier AI researchers working in the United States having received undergraduate degrees in other countries.
2. China is the largest source of top-tier researchers, with 29% of these researchers having received undergraduate degrees in China. But the majority of those Chinese researchers (56%) go on to study, work, and live in the United States.
3. Over half (53%) of all the top-tier AI researchers are immigrants or foreign nationals currently working in a different country from where they received their undergraduate degrees.Prediction: PRC share in all 3 categories will increase in coming decades as their K12, undergraduate, and graduate schools continue to improve, and their high-tech economy grows much larger. See Ditchley Foundation meeting: World Order today.
Wednesday, December 02, 2020
Ditchley Foundation meeting: World Order Today
Tuesday, September 15, 2020
Schrodinger's Cat and the Normaliens
... I was fascinated by astronomy and by calculus, the notion of derivatives and simple differential equations which describe so directly and so well the laws of dynamics obeyed by moving bodies. This was the time of the first artificial satellites, the sputniks which orbited the earth and launched the American-Soviet race to the moon.
I marveled at the fact that I was able, with the elementary calculus I knew, to compute the escape velocity of rockets, the periods of satellites on their orbits and the gravitational field at the surface of all the planets … I understood then that nature obeys mathematical laws, a fact that did not cease to astonish me. I knew, from that time on, that I wanted to be a scientist. For that, I embarked in the strenuous and demanding “classes préparatoires” of the famed Lycée Louis-Le-Grand, one of the preparatory schools which train the best French students for the contest examinations leading to the “Grandes Ecoles.” They are the engineering and academic schools, which since the French Revolution, have formed the scientific elite of France. These were two years of intensive study where I learned a lot of math and of classical physics. I eventually was admitted in 1963 to the Ecole Polytechnique (ranking first in the national examination, to the great pride of my parents) and at the Ecole Normale Supérieure (ENS). I chose to enter the latter because, at that time, it offered a much better opportunity to embark in a scientist career.
The years as a student at ENS (1963–1967) have left me wonderful memories, contrasting sharply with the strenuous training of the preparatory school. Here, in the middle of the Latin Quarter, I was free to organize my time as I wished, to meet and discuss with students working in all kinds of fields in science or humanities and to enjoy all the distractions and cultural activities Paris has to offer. And I was paid for that, since the “Normaliens” as the ENS students are called, are considered civil servants and receive a generous stipend! These were my formative years as a scientist. Coming so to speak from the physics of the 19th century which was taught in the classes préparatoires, I was immediately thrown into modern physics and the quantum world by the classes of exceptional teachers. Alfred Kastler gave us a lyrical description of the dance of atomic kinetic moments, and gave atoms and photons a near poetic existence. Jean Brossel brought us back to Earth by describing the great experiments thanks to which quantum concepts were established, instilling in us the austere passion for precision. And Claude Cohen-Tannoudji revealed the theory’s formalism to us with extraordinary depth and clarity. I still remember three books I read avidly at the time: Quantum Mechanics by Albert Messiah, where I truly understood the depth and beauty of the quantum theory; Principlesof Nuclear Magnetism by Anatole Abragam, who introduced me to the subtle world of atomic magnetic moments; and Feynman’s Lectures on Physics, which was a revelation.
Friday, April 17, 2020
The von Neumann-Fuchs bomb, and the radiation compression mechanism of Ulam-Teller-Sakharov
Some useful references below on the Ulam-Teller mechanism, Sakharov's Third Idea, and the von Neumann-Fuchs thermonuclear design of 1946. They resolve a mystery discussed previously on this blog:
Sakharov's Third Idea: ... If Zeldovich was already familiar with radiation pressure as the tool for compression, via the Fuchs report of 1948, then perhaps one cannot really credit Teller so much for adding this ingredient to Ulam's idea of a staged device using a fission bomb to compress the thermonuclear fuel. Fuchs and von Neumann had already proposed (and patented!) radiation implosion years before. More here.It turns out that the compression mechanism used in the von Neumann-Fuchs design (vN is the first author on the patent application; the design was realized in the Operation Greenhouse George nuclear test of 1951) is not that of Ulam-Teller or Sakharov. In vN-F the D-T mixture reaches thermal equilibrium with ionized BeO gas, leading to a pressure increase of ~10x. This is not the "cold compression" via focused radiation pressure used in the U-T / Sakharov designs. That was, apparently, conceived independently by Ulam-Teller and Sakharov.
It is only recently that the vN-F design has become public -- first obtained by the Soviets via espionage (Fuchs), and finally declassified and published by the Russians! It seems that Zeldovich had access to this information, but not Sakharov.
American and Soviet H-bomb development programmes: historical background by G. Goncharov.
John von Neumann and Klaus Fuchs: an Unlikely Collaboration by Jeremy Bernstein. See also here for some clarifying commentary.
A great anecdote:
Jeremy Bernstein: When I was an undergraduate at Harvard he [vN] came to the university to give lectures on the computer and the brain. They were the best lectures I have ever heard on anything — like mental champagne. After one of them I found myself walking in Harvard Square and looked up to see von Neumann. Thinking, correctly as it happened, that it would be the only chance I would have to ask him a question, I asked, ‘‘Professor von Neumann, will the computer ever replace the human mathematician?’’ He studied me and then responded, ‘‘Sonny, don’t worry about it.’’
Note added from comments: I hope this clarifies things a bit.
The question of how the Soviets got to the U-T mechanism is especially mysterious. Sakharov himself (ostensibly the Soviet inventor) was puzzled until the end about what had really happened! He did not have access to the vN-F design that has been made public from the Russian side (~2000, after Sakharov's death in 1989; still classified in US). Zeldovich and only a few others had seen the Fuchs information, at a time when the main focus of the Russian program was not the H bomb. Sakharov could never be sure whether his suggestion for cold radiation compression sparked Zeldovich's interest because the latter *had seen the idea before* without fully comprehending it. Sakharov wondered about this until the end of his life (see below), but I think his surmise was not correct: we know now that vN-F did *not* come up with that idea in their 1946 design. I've been puzzled about this question myself for some time. IF the vN-F design had used radiation pressure for cold compression, why did Teller get so much credit for replacing neutrons with radiation pressure in Ulam's staged design (1951)? I stumbled across the (now public) vN-F design by accident just recently -- I was reading some biographical stuff about Zeldovich which touched upon these issues.Another useful resource: Gennady Gorelik (BU science historian): The Paternity of the H-Bombs: Soviet-American Perspectives
https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2012/10/sakharovs-third-idea.html
Consider the following words in Sakharov’s memoirs, with a note he added toward the end of life:
Now I think that the main idea of the H-bomb design developed by the Zeldovich group was based on intelligence information. However, I can’t prove this conjecture. It occurred to me quite recently, but at the time I just gave it no thought. (Note added July 1987. David Holloway writes in “Soviet Thermonuclear Development,” International Security 4:3 (1979/80), p. 193: “The Soviet Union had been informed by Klaus Fuchs of the studies of thermonuclear weapons at Los Alamos up to 1946. … His information would have been misleading rather than helpful, because the early ideas were later shown not to work.” Therefore my conjecture is confirmed!)
Teller, 1952, August (re Bethe’s Memorandum): The main principle of radiation implosion was developed in connection with the thermonuclear program and was stated at a conference on the thermonuclear bomb, in the spring of 1946. Dr. Bethe did not attend this conference, but Dr. Fuchs did. [ Original development by vN? ]The last part ("cool as long as possible") refers to the fundamental difference between the vN-Fuchs design and the U-T mechanism of cold radiation compression. The former assumes thermal equilibrium between ionized gas and radiation, while latter deliberately avoids it as long as possible.
It is difficult to argue to what extent an invention is accidental: most difficult for someone who did not make the invention himself. It appears to me that the idea was a relatively slight modification of ideas generally known in 1946. Essentially only two elements had to be added: to implode a bigger volume, and, to achieve greater compression by keeping the imploded material cool as long as possible.
Official Soviet History: On the making of the Soviet hydrogen (thermonuclear) bomb, Yu B Khariton et al 1996 Phys.-Usp. 39 185. Some details on the origin of the compression idea, followed by the use of radiation pressure (Zeldovich and Sakharov).
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