Monday, April 27, 2020

COVID-19: CDC US deaths by age group

Reader LondonYoung points to this CDC data set. Table 2 is reproduced below.

If we assume that CV-19 has infected a few percent of the total US population, we should multiply the numbers in the CV-19 deaths column by ~30x to extrapolate to a full population sweep. With that adjustment factor the impact on people younger than 25 is still very modest. It is only among people ~50y or older for whom the effect of a full CV-19 sweep is comparable to All-Cause deaths.

As a rough estimate I'd guess a full population sweep (under good medical conditions) costs about 10M QALYS. How much is that worth? A few trillion dollars?

Of course, we should keep in mind that there might be very negative long-term health consequences from serious cases of CV-19 infection that do not result in death.


1. Germany’s leading coronavirus expert Christian Drosten on Merkel’s leadership, the UK response, and the ‘prevention paradox’ (Guardian).

2. US National Academy of Sciences COVID-19 Update.

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