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Senior Vice-President for Research and Innovation, Professor of Theoretical Physics, Michigan State University

Monday, April 27, 2020

COVID-19: CDC US deaths by age group

Reader LondonYoung points to this CDC data set. Table 2 is reproduced below.

If we assume that CV-19 has infected a few percent of the total US population, we should multiply the numbers in the CV-19 deaths column by ~30x to extrapolate to a full population sweep. With that adjustment factor the impact on people younger than 25 is still very modest. It is only among people ~50y or older for whom the effect of a full CV-19 sweep is comparable to All-Cause deaths.

As a rough estimate I'd guess a full population sweep (under good medical conditions) costs about 10M QALYS. How much is that worth? A few trillion dollars?


Of course, we should keep in mind that there might be very negative long-term health consequences from serious cases of CV-19 infection that do not result in death.

Added:

1. Germany’s leading coronavirus expert Christian Drosten on Merkel’s leadership, the UK response, and the ‘prevention paradox’ (Guardian).

2. US National Academy of Sciences COVID-19 Update.

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