Monday, October 29, 2018

Thomas Fingar: OBOR, TPP, China economic development and foreign policy

This is a thoughtful discussion of OBOR and TPP. @44min and following, an insider's account of economic rapprochement between the US and China starting in 1978. Also, some interesting comments on political reforms necessary to escape the middle income trap.
China is heavily investing in two infrastructure routes: a “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” stretching from Southern China across the Indian Ocean to connect Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Africa to the Mediterranean; and a land-based Silk Road Economic Belt connecting Western China to Europe via Central Asia. Establishing these transcontinental trade routes will likely cost over one trillion dollars and will cover 65% of the world's population. This investment could help fill a wide “infrastructure investment gap” in China and the 68 other Asian, African, and European countries it passes through, however, traditional international development actors such as multilateral investment banks and developed nations are concerned about the outcomes, terms, and process that come with this massive investment. There are still a number of questions surrounding how China might protect the route after it's built and if the benefits will outweigh the risk. Should recipient countries be worried about political strings that might come attached to OBOR projects? What impact does this different unilateral, loan-based model have on the recipient countries? How likely is China to succeed in achieving these grand investment goals and how will a project of this scale continue to contribute to China’s own growth? What type of impact does this project have on global trade in general?

Thomas Fingar (Wikipedia)

Born January 11, 1948 (age 70)
Education Cornell University (BA) Stanford University (MA, PhD)

Charles Thomas Fingar, born January 11, 1946, is a professor at Stanford University. In 1986 Fingar left Stanford to join the State Department. In 2005, he moved to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence as the Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis and concurrently served as the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council until December 2008.[1] In January 2009, he rejoined Stanford University as a Payne Distinguished Lecturer in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

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