Saturday, February 21, 2009

Demand destruction


There is no way government stimulus can replace the trillions of dollars of debt driven demand that the US and world economy have relied on for years. What's ahead? See here for some very good, but very gloomy, analysis. (Earlier related post here -- see Microsoft CEO Balmer's comment.)

Let's hope we don't go the way of Japan:



NYTimes: As recession-wary Americans adapt to a new frugality, Japan offers a peek at how thrift can take lasting hold of a consumer society, to disastrous effect.

The economic malaise that plagued Japan from the 1990s until the early 2000s brought stunted wages and depressed stock prices, turning free-spending consumers into misers and making them dead weight on Japan’s economy.

Today, years after the recovery, even well-off Japanese households use old bath water to do laundry, a popular way to save on utility bills. Sales of whiskey, the favorite drink among moneyed Tokyoites in the booming ’80s, have fallen to a fifth of their peak. And the nation is losing interest in cars; sales have fallen by half since 1990.

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