Apologies for my recent inactivity. I've been busy finishing several projects and also distracted by our recent election.
Possibly the biggest global impact of this election is on US-China relations.
It seems likely that Biden will be our next president (although I am interested to see what closer inspection of the election reveals), and based on this I think odds have shifted in favor of a continued rise of the PRC in global economic and military power. I now think that the US lacks the will to counter China's continued rise: their main potential failure mode over the next 20 years is internal, not likely a consequence of external pressure. (Although of course there is still a chance the US and China will blunder into a war, with terrible consequences for the whole world.)
Note I am not saying the US-China cold war or supply chain decoupling are off, just that the US is unlikely to put sufficient pressure on China to significantly retard its development over the next 20 years. This will have to be re-evaluated in 2024, of course, but we may pass the tipping point.
In 2004 I made some forecasts of where China would be in 2020. These forecasts were met with skepticism then but have mostly been correct. SeeSustainability of China economic growth
In my earlier post on Beijing I emphasized the issue of scale in China -- massive scale that is evident in the video above.
I traveled in SE Asia before the 1997 currency / economic crisis. At that time there was plenty of evidence of a bubble in those countries -- unused infrastructure and real estate built on spec, few signs of real technological or productive capability, etc. China had aspects of that 10 years ago, but now it's apparent that earlier infrastructure investment is being put to good use.
As I walked around Beijing I strained to find things around me -- buildings, solar panels, batteries, cars, high speed trains, electronics, software infrastructure, even airplanes -- that couldn't be sourced in China. Other than a few specific tech stacks that will get serious attention in coming years (e.g., CPUs) I was not able to think of many areas in which China has not caught up technologically.
See Can the US derail China 2025?There is a consistent Western cognitive bias concerning China: a severe underestimate of her capabilities and the capabilities of her people. This bias persists and analysts should carefully recalibrate in light of their previous predictions and the actual outcomes. Separate from this bias is an overall lack of knowledge and a willingness to accept lazy generalizations...