Tuesday, December 07, 2004

Sustainability of China economic growth

A reader commented that my earlier estimates for the emergence of a middle class might be optimistic. My main assumption was that the differential in growth rates between China and developed countries would average about 5 percent per year. (e.g. 7% vs 2%)

Below are some figures from the IMF, which suggest that China's rapid economic growth could continue for some time. Determinants of growth, such as savings, investment and opportunity for reallocation of human capital, compare favorably with Japan or other NIEs (Korea, Singapore, Taiwan) at a similar stage of development.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Except that the decline is coming: see
this USENET post...

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