Tuesday, May 19, 2020

COVID-19: Open Thread

I haven't followed the latest scientific progress very carefully for the last week or two. It seems that things have slowed down a bit. Previous posts on COVID-19.

I still think the evidence is reasonably strong for IFR ~ 1% (meaning could be 0.5% under good conditions, higher if medical systems are overwhelmed; there seems to be some evidence for dosage dependence of severity as well).

I suspect that from a purely utilitarian perspective we might be overpaying per QALY.

Tests seem to be improving (e.g., Roche), and there seems to be positive early news about vaccines.

Does anyone know what the status of contact tracing apps is? Are there any that have been tested at scale outside of E. Asia?

Where and When were the earliest cases? Is there any evidence for functional (rather than simply genomic) differences between strains?

Please add any useful updates in the comments below.

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