Sunday, September 14, 2008

Armageddon

Looks like I called it right -- Lehman and Merrill disappeared this weekend. I didn't expect Merrill to go so fast, but apparently the Fed gave them an ultimatum. BofA bought them for $44B. The era of the independent broker-dealer is over: only Morgan and Goldman remain.

AIG is next -- they need to raise $40B or endure a downgrade from credit agencies.

Forget about $200 oil (it's under $100 already) and inflation (for a while)-- we're headed into a recession in the US and a serious slowdown worldwide.

It looks like we'll have a mark to market soon :-) Main Street is going to lag for a while -- the final 20% capitulation in housing prices will still take a year or two.

Stockpile food and convert everything to Swiss Francs...

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