I'm as dismayed as anyone else about taxpayer dollars going to bail out mortgage holders, commercial banks and the GSE's (Fannie, Freddie). I complained about Fannie back in 2004 when Franklin Raines was still CEO and the story first got out about their smoothing of earnings and use of derivatives accounting.
But, on the other hand, maybe Uncle Sam can actually generate positive return by buying oversold securities! Rumor says that current prices of subprime mortgage backed securities suggest implied default rates which are unrealistically high (e.g., like 50% !). Barring a complete economic meltdown these assets are underpriced and will generate a handsome return for an intelligent investor willing to take some risk. Is Uncle Sam smart? Let's hope that the other Paulson negotiates some upside for us taxpayers in any bailout organized by the Treasury.
Bloomberg: John Paulson, the money manager whose wagers against the U.S. housing market helped him earn an estimated $3.7 billion last year, is now seeking to profit from Wall Street's search for capital to offset mortgage writedowns.
Paulson plans to open a hedge fund by December that will provide capital to the world's biggest banks and brokers as they add to the $345 billion they've raised in the past year, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. His Paulson & Co., which oversees $33 billion, hasn't set a size target for the fund, said the people, who declined to be identified because the plans aren't final.
The New York-based firm's credit funds rose as much as sixfold last year, helped by bets that rising defaults on subprime home loans would pummel the value of mortgage-backed securities. The meltdown has forced the world's biggest banks and securities firms to take $467 billion in asset write-offs and credit losses and led to the collapse of Bear Stearns Cos.
``Investors who are able to make money in a declining market and then rapidly turn around and profit from a rising market is highly unusual,'' said Thomas Whelan, president of Greenwich, Connecticut-based Greenwich Alternative Investments, which advises clients on investing in hedge funds.
Paulson declined to comment. His 2007 earnings made him the highest-paid hedge-fund manager, according to Institutional Investor's Alpha magazine.
