Highly recommended podcast: Tim Harford (FT) at the LSE. Among the topics covered are Keynes' and Irving Fisher's performance as investors, and Philip Tetlock's IARPA-sponsored Good Judgement Project, meant to evaluate expert prediction of complex events. Project researchers (psychologists) find that "actively open-minded thinkers" (those who are willing to learn from those that disagree with them) perform best. Unfortunately there are no real "super-predictors" -- just some who are better than others, and have better calibration (accurate confidence estimates).
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Blog Archive
Labels
- physics (351)
- genetics (289)
- finance (262)
- globalization (260)
- brainpower (248)
- genomics (220)
- technology (211)
- american society (198)
- China (182)
- innovation (172)
- economics (170)
- psychometrics (167)
- science (162)
- photos (160)
- ai (151)
- psychology (149)
- travel (137)
- machine learning (124)
- universities (121)
- biology (117)
- higher education (116)
- credit crisis (115)
- human capital (112)
- genetic engineering (110)
- startups (105)
- iq (104)
- cognitive science (97)
- careers (81)
- autobiographical (79)
- credit crunch (78)
- statistics (75)
- elitism (73)
- evolution (73)
- gilded age (73)
- income inequality (70)
- quantum mechanics (67)
- political correctness (66)
- talks (64)
- genius (63)
- social science (63)
- politics (62)
- books (61)
- caltech (61)
- geopolitics (61)
- podcasts (60)
- history of science (58)
- mma (56)
- bounded rationality (53)
- silicon valley (53)
- harvard (52)
- sci fi (52)
- academia (51)
- kids (50)
- education (49)
- bgi (48)
- mathematics (48)
- MSU (47)
- cdo (45)
- realpolitik (45)
- derivatives (42)
- intellectual history (40)
- jiujitsu (40)
- behavioral economics (39)
- history (39)
- literature (39)
- neuroscience (38)
- physical training (38)
- biotech (37)
- ufc (37)
- bjj (36)
- bubbles (36)
- film (36)
- mortgages (36)
- computing (35)
- expert prediction (33)
- google (32)
- hedge funds (32)
- video (32)
- black holes (30)
- foo camp (30)
- many worlds (30)
- race relations (30)
- affirmative action (29)
- economic history (29)
- quants (29)
- efficient markets (28)
- movies (28)
- feynman (27)
- nuclear weapons (27)
- sports (27)
- von Neumann (27)
- music (26)
- security (26)
- entrepreneurs (25)
- housing (25)
- obama (25)
- singularity (25)
- subprime (25)
- taiwan (24)
- berkeley (23)
- conferences (22)
- meritocracy (22)
- ultimate fighting (22)
- athletics (21)
- venture capital (21)
- wall street (21)
- cds (20)
- internet (20)
- quantum field theory (20)
- scifoo (20)
- blogging (19)
- gender (18)
- goldman sachs (18)
- smpy (17)
- treasury bailout (17)
- university of oregon (17)
- algorithms (16)
- cryptography (16)
- freeman dyson (16)
- new yorker (16)
- autism (15)
- cosmology (15)
- japan (15)
- oppenheimer (15)
- personality (15)
- happiness (14)
- height (14)
- wwii (14)
- chess (13)
- christmas (13)
- dna (13)
- fitness (13)
- hedonic treadmill (13)
- privacy (13)
- probability (13)
- aspergers (12)
- india (12)
- les grandes ecoles (12)
- malcolm gladwell (12)
- neanderthals (12)
- net worth (12)
- nobel prize (12)
- social networks (12)
- television (12)
- blade runner (11)
- entropy (11)
- geeks (11)
- harvard society of fellows (11)
- nsa (11)
- philosophy of mind (11)
- string theory (11)
- ability (10)
- football (10)
- government (10)
- italy (10)
- mutants (10)
- nerds (10)
- olympics (10)
- pseudoscience (10)
- research (10)
- Einstein (9)
- Go (9)
- complexity (9)
- crossfit (9)
- dating (9)
- encryption (9)
- eugene (9)
- flynn effect (9)
- james salter (9)
- turing test (9)
- alan turing (8)
- art (8)
- data mining (8)
- determinism (8)
- keynes (8)
- manhattan (8)
- pca (8)
- philip k. dick (8)
- pop culture (8)
- real estate (8)
- robot genius (8)
- russia (8)
- usain bolt (8)
- war (8)
- aig (7)
- alpha (7)
- ashkenazim (7)
- basketball (7)
- energy (7)
- france (7)
- free will (7)
- fx (7)
- game theory (7)
- games (7)
- hugh everett (7)
- paris (7)
- poker (7)
- qcd (7)
- success (7)
- Fermi problems (6)
- anthropic principle (6)
- bayes (6)
- class (6)
- climate change (6)
- democracy (6)
- environmentalism (6)
- nassim taleb (6)
- new york times (6)
- noam chomsky (6)
- patents (6)
- prostitution (6)
- quantum computers (6)
- tail risk (6)
- teaching (6)
- volatility (6)
- academia sinica (5)
- bobby fischer (5)
- cold war (5)
- econtalk (5)
- godel (5)
- information theory (5)
- iraq war (5)
- kasparov (5)
- luck (5)
- nonlinearity (5)
- perimeter institute (5)
- rationality (5)
- renaissance technologies (5)
- sad but true (5)
- software development (5)
- vietnam war (5)
- warren buffet (5)
- 100m (4)
- Iran (4)
- Poincare (4)
- bill gates (4)
- borges (4)
- cambridge uk (4)
- censorship (4)
- charles darwin (4)
- creativity (4)
- drones (4)
- fake alpha (4)
- feminism (4)
- global warming (4)
- hormones (4)
- humor (4)
- inequality (4)
- intellectual property (4)
- judo (4)
- kerviel (4)
- markets (4)
- microsoft (4)
- mixed martial arts (4)
- monsters (4)
- moore's law (4)
- solar energy (4)
- soros (4)
- trento (4)
- 200m (3)
- babies (3)
- brain drain (3)
- charlie munger (3)
- chet baker (3)
- correlation (3)
- demographics (3)
- ecosystems (3)
- equity risk premium (3)
- facebook (3)
- fannie (3)
- fst (3)
- intellectual ventures (3)
- jim simons (3)
- language (3)
- lee kwan yew (3)
- lewontin fallacy (3)
- lhc (3)
- magic (3)
- michael lewis (3)
- nathan myhrvold (3)
- neal stephenson (3)
- olympiads (3)
- path integrals (3)
- risk preference (3)
- search (3)
- sec (3)
- simulation (3)
- sivs (3)
- society generale (3)
- supercomputers (3)
- thailand (3)
- alibaba (2)
- assortative mating (2)
- bear stearns (2)
- bruce springsteen (2)
- charles babbage (2)
- cheng ting hsu (2)
- cloning (2)
- david mamet (2)
- digital books (2)
- donald mackenzie (2)
- eliot spitzer (2)
- empire (2)
- exchange rates (2)
- frauds (2)
- freddie (2)
- gaussian copula (2)
- heinlein (2)
- industrial revolution (2)
- james watson (2)
- ltcm (2)
- mating (2)
- mba (2)
- mccain (2)
- mit (2)
- monkeys (2)
- national character (2)
- nicholas metropolis (2)
- no holds barred (2)
- offices (2)
- oligarchs (2)
- palin (2)
- population structure (2)
- prisoner's dilemma (2)
- skidelsky (2)
- socgen (2)
- sprints (2)
- systemic risk (2)
- twitter (2)
- ussr (2)
- variance (2)
- virtual reality (2)
- abx (1)
- anathem (1)
- andrew lo (1)
- antikythera mechanism (1)
- athens (1)
- atlas shrugged (1)
- ayn rand (1)
- bay area (1)
- beats (1)
- book search (1)
- bunnie huang (1)
- car dealers (1)
- carlos slim (1)
- catastrophe bonds (1)
- cdos (1)
- ces 2008 (1)
- chance (1)
- children (1)
- cochran-harpending (1)
- computers (1)
- cpi (1)
- david x. li (1)
- dick cavett (1)
- dolomites (1)
- drugs (1)
- dune (1)
- eharmony (1)
- epidemics (1)
- escorts (1)
- faces (1)
- fads (1)
- favorite posts (1)
- fiber optic cable (1)
- francis crick (1)
- gary brecher (1)
- gizmos (1)
- greece (1)
- greenspan (1)
- hypocrisy (1)
- igon value (1)
- iit (1)
- inflation (1)
- information asymmetry (1)
- iphone (1)
- jack kerouac (1)
- jaynes (1)
- jfk (1)
- john dolan (1)
- john kerry (1)
- john paulson (1)
- john searle (1)
- john tierney (1)
- jonathan littell (1)
- las vegas (1)
- lawyers (1)
- lehman auction (1)
- les bienveillantes (1)
- lowell wood (1)
- lse (1)
- mcgeorge bundy (1)
- mexico (1)
- michael jackson (1)
- mickey rourke (1)
- migration (1)
- money:tech (1)
- myron scholes (1)
- netwon institute (1)
- networks (1)
- newton institute (1)
- nfl (1)
- oliver stone (1)
- phil gramm (1)
- philanthropy (1)
- philip greenspun (1)
- portfolio theory (1)
- power laws (1)
- pyschology (1)
- randomness (1)
- recession (1)
- sales (1)
- singapore (1)
- skype (1)
- standard deviation (1)
- star wars (1)
- starship troopers (1)
- students today (1)
- teleportation (1)
- tierney lab blog (1)
- tomonaga (1)
- tyler cowen (1)
- venice (1)
- violence (1)
- virtual meetings (1)
- war nerd (1)
- wealth effect (1)
2 comments:
I'm a big fan of Tim Harford's statistics show on BBC Radio 4. You can listen to it here http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qshd
And Tim Hartford - while speaking about the merits of encouraging minority opinion - while demonstrating in experiment the merits of being willing to engage with dissent - while gushing profusely about both the genius of both Fisher and Keynes - then offers his only point of open condemnation for those whose intellects he admires: for their engaging in any kind of entertainment of eugenics.
No argument is necessary. The audience smugly laughs. And so, Tim's talk continues, to elaborate on examples of cognitive dissonance in the past.
Post a Comment