Friday, January 14, 2005

How the CIA sees the world in 2020

Here is the Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project. Not a bad job, although I noticed right away they aren't even consistent about PPP vs nominal FX rates when estimating the sizes of economies or standards of living.

Some interesting excerpts:
"...Asia will alter the rules of the globalizing process.  By having the fastest-growing consumer markets, more firms becoming world-class multinationals, and greater S&T stature, Asia looks set to displace Western countries as the focus for international economic dynamism—provided Asia’s rapid economic growth continues."

"The number of US engineering graduates peaked in 1985 and is presently down 20 percent from that level; the percentage of US undergraduates taking engineering is the second lowest of all developed countries.  China graduates approximately three times as many engineering students as the United States.  However, post-9/11 security concerns have made it harder to attract incoming foreign students and, in some cases, foreign nationals available to work for US firms.b  Non-US universities—for which a US visa is not required—are attempting to exploit the situation and bolster their strength." 

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