Thursday, November 16, 2006

Mouth bets

Brad Setser and Nouriel Roubini made a call that Bretton Woods 2 - an international monetary system based on central bank financing of the US deficit - would collapse sooner rather than later. I was of a similar view, and still think something bad will happen to the dollar - it's just a question of when. But nothing has happened yet, and Brad is starting to take some abuse on his blog:

You guys are smart, but you're also consistently wrong.

The two of you remind of a couple of trekkies that speak Klingon. This blog is wonderful for showing off how clever you are, but it's not useful at all. Self-conscious mental masterbation.

I mean, one of your bloggers commentators is so pretentious that he writes in haiku. It's perfect for your site.

I'm glad you're 'fessing up to how wrong you guys can be. That seems an impossible task for Nouriel. He responds by writing more and more blogs in his defense.

Written by truthHurtz on 2006-11-16 17:53:09

I agree that you've been wrong, Brad. There's a reason why you guys write papers, give advice, and argue with other "smart guys" - all safely from within the comfort of the fantasy world that theory and academia provides, never having to make money in the big bad real world by betting along the lines of your assertions.

Written by Anonymous on 2006-11-16 19:30:49

Brad responds admirably (look down the page at the comments), and lobs some fair questions back to his interlocutors. While I find the comments pretty nasty, they do get to an important point about academics in general. Traders sometimes use the term "mouth bet" for taking a position without putting any skin in the game :-)


Anonymous said...

If they were often right themselves, they wouldn't be wasting their time trolling.

Anonymous said...

No collapse before 2008 Olympics(as you suggested previously).

Then, I expect the yuan to rise, meaning energy cheaper for Chinese(aren't all their long-term contracts for energy in US $?). They are doubtless preparing for loss of N American market(due to the rise in the yuan).


Anonymous said...

Well, they may have spoken just a bit too soon, no?

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