Saturday, July 22, 2006

Reich on China growth

Via Economist's View. I think Robert Reich's view is a bit too rosy, although his points are all well taken. Regarding point (1), the top central planners in China are likely quite good, but the system is still such that tremendous resources are misallocated -- for example, into unnecessary property development projects. They are gaining very, very fast in productivity and mastery of new technologies, although the 11 percent number in (2) isn't to be trusted entirely. Regarding point (3), I just watched the movie Syriana and recommend it to anyone who isn't in the oil industry :-)

China Growth

I've been watching the statistics coming out of China about its economic growth. Here are three things you should know. (1) The people managing China's economy (I'm not talking about the politicians but about the financial and economic wizards who are actually making decisions about money supply, capital markets, and the like) are extremely good. They match the best economic minds anywhere in the world. In other words, they know what they're doing. (2) The latest data show China is now growing at a rate faster than 11 percent. That's extraordinary. It's faster than China has been growing for the last five years -- and that was faster than anyone had predicted. China's rate of economic growth is the biggest economic news in the world. (3) That growth is putting huge demands on world energy supplies, and raw materials. Oil prices will continue to rise, as will all other commodities. This is the most important economic fact in the world right now. It is also among the most important political facts in the world.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

In my view, Robert Reich always comes up short.

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