Sunday, February 13, 2005

Liquidity feedback

Economist: "It is not just America that feels the effect of low American interest rates. America has flooded the whole world with liquidity. Its loose monetary policy has been exported to other central banks through the fall in the dollar. For example, to offset the impact of a stronger euro on growth, the European Central Bank has been forced to hold the euro area's real interest rates negative for longer than might otherwise have been prudent. Mortgage lending in the single-currency zone is rising at an annual rate of 10%. In many countries, notably France and Spain, house prices are booming.

America's easy money has also spilled beyond its borders in a second way. When central banks buy American Treasury bonds, adding to their foreign-exchange reserves, to try to hold down their currencies against the dollar, they print local money. This amplifies the Fed's lax stance. Last year, the global supply of dollars (the sum of America's monetary base plus global foreign-exchange reserves) rose by a whopping 25%. After adjusting for inflation, this is close to the fastest pace in the past three decades.

Worse still, the effects of greater global liquidity then flow back into America's economy. By buying huge amounts of American securities to prevent their currencies rising, Asian central banks depress American bond yields, lowering borrowing costs for home buyers and companies. By some estimates, Asian purchases of American bonds have reduced yields by between half and one percentage-point."



Are foreign central banks essentially printing money to buy Treasuries? (That would indeed be inflationary.) Or, are they issuing local-currency denominated bonds to raise money with which they buy US bonds ("sterilizing")? In the latter case there is no inflationary effect but there is an FX mismatch between assets and liabilities of the central bank that will hurt them if the dollar falls in value.

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