Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Humans need not apply

7 comments:

Jim H said...

That seems a bit more optimistic than your usual predictions....

Cornelius said...

I wouldn't worry about being replaced with a robot. Not because I think it won't happen, but because I know economic forces will result in me having an even better standard of living than before I was replaced. I'm not confident that this will happen in my lifetime though.

On the subject of driverless cars: These will dramatically change the urban/suburban landscape. Typical highway speeds will be 200+ mph, probably 300 mph once the technology is mature. The entire I-95 corridor between New York and DC will consist of suburbs for both cities. Northern New England will be a suburb of both Boston and Montreal. If airport security remains as burdensome as it is today, driving will become the preferred method to get from New York to Orlando.

steve hsu said...

I didn't make any timescale predictions. The directionality of what is discussed in the video is of course correct.

The horse analogy is a good one. I believe we'll see a big divergence in economic value of skilled vs unskilled human labor in the coming decades.

Pseudoerasmus said...

Yes a big divergence between skilled and unskilled human labour, but that doesn't mean the unskilled will be unemployed, especially to the tune of 45% suggested by the video. Technological progress has always displaced workers but mass unemployment has been prevented because human wants are infinite... when productivity goes up, the implied extra income must get spent somehow. I don't know exactly how the extra income will be spent in the future, but the rich have always been conspicuous in the consumption of labour-intensive goods & services. Those have snob value. But my guess is, the luxury consumption sector will boom as an ever bigger fraction of the economy, to Gilded-Age or Downton-Abbey proportions, except that instead of the top 0.1% being able to afford such lifestyles it will be more and more the skilled in general (say the top 10-15%).

Quercus said...

So why do I still have to pump my own gas!?

5371 said...

It used to be said about opera that things too stupid to be spoken could always be sung. Nowadays it is clear that things too stupid to appear in print can always appear in a video, webcast or podcast.

Chris Adami said...

In the linked talk, I make a distinction between two types of (engineered) intelligence. One is easy, the other is hard. Click on the "Webcast" link in the talk advertisement.
http://www.isi.edu/technology_groups/insy/events/ai_seminar-_chris_adami_%E2%80%9C_new_path_towards_machine_intelligence

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