Thanks to Google and Blogspot for many happy years hosting this blog. However, Google has gradually stopped supporting this platform.
The engineers at Substack were kind enough to import all of my old posts to a new blog there. From now on I will post only on Substack. See you there! :-)
Glenn Luk has worked as an investment banker, private equity investor, and startup founder. He has closely analyzed aspects of the Chinese economy, including its GDP and high speed rail system.
Steve and Glenn discuss:
(00:00) - Introduction
(01:21) - Glenn Luk's Background: HK, Taiwan, China
(07:59) - Evolution of Chinese Companies and Economy
(14:58) - From Banking to Private Equity and Venture Capital
(23:08) - Founding a Healthcare Startup and Entrepreneurial Ventures
(26:35) - China's Development and Economic Policies
(41:17) - Comparing US and China's Economies and Cultures
(47:12) - Demographics and Consumer Behavior in China
(49:09) - China's Economy: Beyond GDP
(56:34) - High Speed Rail: huge success, or white elephant?
We discuss recent applications of Euclidean path integrals to the black hole information problem. In calculations with replica wormholes as the next-to-leading order correction to the Gibbons-Hawking saddlepoint, the radiation density matrix approaches a pure state at late times, following the Page curve. We compare unitary evaporation of black holes (in real time), mediated by calculable quantum hair effects, with the replica wormhole results. Both replica wormhole and quantum hair approaches imply that radiation states are macroscopic superpositions of spacetime backgrounds, invalidating firewall and monogamy of entanglement constructions. Importantly, identification of modes inside the horizon with radiation modes (i.e., large scale nonlocality across the horizon) is not required to provide a physical picture of unitary evaporation. Radiation modes can encode the interior information while still remaining independent degrees of freedom.
Wormholes dominate the Gibbons-Hawking saddlepoint of the Euclidean path integral after the Page time. This is because wormholes can connect the interiors of any two black holes i,j. At late times the number of such pairs grows as the dimensionality of the radiation Hilbert space squared.
The wormholes connect BHs with macroscopically different recoil trajectories. This means the radiation approaches a pure state that is a macroscopic superposition - very similar to what our quantum hair expressions indicate.
Casey Handmer (PhD Caltech, general relativity) is the founder of Terraform Industries. He is one of the most capable and ambitious geo-engineers on planet Earth!
Terraform Industries is scaling technology to produce cheap natural gas with sunlight and air. Using solar energy, they extract carbon from the air and synthesize natural gas, all at the same site.
March 2024: "Terraform completes the end to end demo, successfully producing fossil carbon free pipeline grade natural gas from sunlight and air. We also achieved green hydrogen at <$2.50/kg-H2 and DAC CO2 at <$250/T-CO2, two incredible milestones."
Recent interview with Razib Khan. We've known each other IRL for about 20 years now, so this conversation has a slightly different character than other interviews I've done.
I highly recommend his substack and podcast, particularly if you are interested in ancient DNA, human evolution, deep history.
Russell Clark is a hedge fund investor who has lived and worked in both Japan and China. He writes the widely followed Substack Capital Flows and Asset Markets: https://www.russell-clark.com/
Steve and Russell discuss:
0:00 Introduction
0:52 Russell's background and experiences in Japan
13:25 Hong Kong and finance
31:53 China property bubble
48:54 Dollar status as global reserve currency
56:09 Japan and China economies from a long run perspective
1:05:07 Inflation, US economy, and macro observations
Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Steve and Stephen discuss:
0:00 Introduction
0:52 Stephen Grugett’s background
5:20 The genesis and mission of Manifold Markets
11:25 The play money advantage: Legalities and user engagement
20:47 Manifold’s user base and the power of calibration
23:35 Simplifying prediction markets for broader engagement
27:31 Revenue streams and future business directions
30:46 Legal challenges in prediction markets
31:47 Dating markets
32:53 The Art of PR
38:32 Global reach and community engagement
39:27 The future of Manifold Markets and user predictions
43:38 Life in the Bay Area; Tech, culture, and crazy stuff
Elizabeth Carr (first US IVF baby) and Genomic Prediction in the Wall Street Journal.
Elizabeth Carr has always been a living symbol of fertility technology’s possibilities. Now she is the face of its challenges.
Carr, 42 years old, is the first baby born by in vitro fertilization in the U.S. Over the years she has told countless audiences how the technology made it possible for her mother to have a baby.
In the weeks since Alabama’s Supreme Court ruled that frozen embryos should be considered children, Carr has called for protections around IVF procedures—extracting eggs, fertilizing them in a lab and transferring an embryo into a uterus—that now account for some 2% of U.S. births annually.
Sen. Tim Kaine (D., Va.) said federal legislation backing IVF access would “enable the Elizabeth Carrs of the world to continue to be born.” Kaine invited Carr to accompany him on Thursday to President Biden’s State of the Union address.
“My life gives people hope,” Carr said.
The Alabama ruling is galvanizing Carr’s work in another way. Carr leads public relations and patient advocacy at Genomic Prediction, which sells genetic tests to screen embryos. Doctors can order tests for patients who want to screen for diseases and abnormalities or get an overall embryo health score. Patients and doctors can use the results to decide which embryos to transfer. Unused embryos can be stored for years. Some get discarded. ...
Raymond McGovern is a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst, serving from 1963 to 1990.
His CIA career began under President John F. Kennedy and lasted through the presidency of George H. W. Bush. McGovern advised Henry Kissinger during the Richard Nixon administration, and during the Ronald Reagan administration he chaired National Intelligence Estimates and prepared the President's Daily Brief.
He received the Intelligence Commendation Medal at his retirement but returned it in 2006 to protest the CIA's involvement in torture.
Steve and Ray discuss:
0:00 Introduction
01:25 Ray McGovern's assessment of the JFK assassination
26:10 Hunter Biden's laptop
30:50 Ukraine and the U.S. intelligence services' role in the deep state
55:20 Strategic implications of the Ukraine war for the U.S.
This lecture covers DNA and the origin of life on Earth, the Fermi Paradox (is there alien life?), AI and its implications for the Simulation Question: Could our universe be a simulation? Are we machines, but don't know it?
I've been listening to Hidden Forces with Demetri Kofinas for years now. He's an excellent interviewer with interests in finance, geopolitics, technology and more.
In Episode 351 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Stephen Hsu, a Professor of Theoretical Physics and Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Stephen is also the co-founder of multiple companies, including Genomic Prediction, which provides preimplantation genetic screening services for human embryos, and SuperFocus.ai, which builds large language models for narrow enterprise use cases.
This is a conversation about some of the most important advancements and trends in genomic science and artificial intelligence, including the social and ethical dilemmas arising from implementing these technologies at scale. Stephen and I discuss the competitive landscapes in both industries, how America’s geostrategic competition with China is driving tradeoffs between innovation and safety, the risks and opportunities that these revolutionary technologies pose, and how the world’s largest companies, economies, and military powers can work together to reap the benefits of this revolution while averting some of their most disastrous potential consequences.
This is the sequel to the earlier conversation with Dominic Ligot, an AI expert who works with the IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines (IBPAP), the trade association for call center and outsourcing companies.
In this video we briefly demonstrate some of the voice capabilities of the SuperFocus AI. Progress in generative AI is faster than anything I've ever seen before - perhaps not surprising given the vast financial, technological, and human capital resources flowing to AI R&D. When we first looked at voice capabilities ~6 months ago they didn't seem ready for complex conversations like the ones discussed in the video. But when we looked again - prompted by strong interest from our customers - we found that the state of the art had advanced significantly in just a short time. This is true across many areas of generative AI.
I was in Manila in December to meet with BPO companies. Roughly 8% of Philippine GDP ($40B each year) results from BPO / call center work. This is a consequence of low labor costs and widespread English fluency.
We demonstrated narrow AIs built using LLMs, but in which the LLM is forced to "consult its internal memory" before answering any query. This memory can be built from training materials used to train human agents in call centers. The AI functions like a human that has perfect recall of all the material in the training manuals, at a fraction of the cost!
An analogy we used is that the AI earthquake in SF has created a Tsunami headed towards the Philippines -- is it a 6 foot wave, or a 600 ft wave? Closer to the latter, I think.
Some photos from Manila - scoping out potential SuperFocus.ai office space.
This is a conversation with Dominic Ligot, an AI expert who works with the IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines (IBPAP), the trade association for call center and outsourcing companies.
I was in Manila in December to meet with BPO companies. We demonstrated narrow AIs built using LLMs, but in which the LLM is forced to "consult its internal memory" before answering any query. This memory can be built from training materials used to train human agents in call centers. The AI functions like a human that has perfect recall of all the material in the training manuals, at a fraction of the cost!
An analogy we used is that the AI earthquake in SF has created a Tsunami headed towards the Philippines -- is it a 6 foot wave, or a 600 ft wave? Closer to the latter, I think.
Some photos from Manila - scoping out potential SuperFocus.ai office space.