Pessimism of the Intellect, Optimism of the Will Favorite posts | Manifold podcast | Twitter: @hsu_steve
Wednesday, July 27, 2022
Richard Lowery: The War for American Universities — Manifold #17
Monday, July 18, 2022
Quantum Hair and Black Hole Information, University of Amsterdam, 17 Jun 2022
Saturday, July 16, 2022
Meritocracy and Political Leadership in China
In my conversation with @RichardHanania on his podcast we discussed meritocracy and political leadership in PRC. This short video gives a good overview of how it works. Keep in mind CCP ~ 100M people or ~10% of adult population! 1/4https://t.co/dgLrW25fM8
— steve hsu (@hsu_steve) July 16, 2022
PRC civil service exam appears highly g-loaded and is taken by 1-2M people each year. Further promotion depends on performance over ~20y timescale, purportedly monitored by a dedicated and independent I/O sub-org. 2/4https://t.co/W5YC2juWRI
— steve hsu (@hsu_steve) July 16, 2022
For example, Yuan Jiajun, frmr gov. of Zhejiang province and Central Committee member, is a PhD in Aero Eng and ran the manned spaceflight program. Resumes of top PRC leaders are qualitatively different from those of western politicians... 3/4https://t.co/CWqjnLdfyT
— steve hsu (@hsu_steve) July 16, 2022
Academic studies of how this all works yield conflicting results, see e.g. https://t.co/lFrLv7O7xJ
— steve hsu (@hsu_steve) July 16, 2022
However most people familiar with the process believe that the CPC *is trying* to promote meritocracy even at the highest levels of government. 4/4
Thursday, July 14, 2022
Tim Palmer (Oxford): Status and Future of Climate Modeling — Manifold Podcast #16
Wednesday, July 06, 2022
WIRED: Genetic Screening Now Lets Parents Pick the Healthiest Embryos
WIRED: ... Companies such as Genomic Prediction are taking this process much further, giving parents the power to select the embryo they believe to have the best fighting chance of survival both in the womb and out in the world. At the time of writing, Genomic Prediction works with around 200 IVF clinics across six continents. For company cofounder Stephen Hsu, the idea behind preconception screening was no eureka moment, but something he and his peers developed gradually. “We kept pursuing the possibilities from a purely scientific interest,” he says. Over time sequencing has become cheaper and more accessible, and the bank of genetic data has become ever greater, which has provided the opportunity to easily apply machine learning programs to seek out patterns, Hsu explains. “You can have typically millions of people in one data set, with exact measurements of certain things about them—for instance how tall they are or whether they have diabetes—what we call phenotypes. And so it’s relatively straightforward to use AI to build genetic predictors of traits ranging from very simple ones which are only determined by a few genes, or a few different locations in the genome, to the really complicated ones.” As Hsu indicates, the crucial difference with this technology is that it’s not just single mutations like cystic fibrosis or sickle cell anemia that the service makes its calculations on. The conditions embryos are screened for can be extremely complicated, involving thousands of genetic variants across different parts of the genome.
In late 2017, Hsu and his colleagues published a paper demonstrating how, using genomic data at scale, scientists could predict someone’s height to within an inch of accuracy using just their DNA. The research group later used the same method to build genomic predictors for complex diseases such as hypothyroidism, types 1 and 2 diabetes, breast cancer, prostate cancer, testicular cancer, gallstones, glaucoma, gout, atrial fibrillation, high cholesterol, asthma, basal cell carcinoma, malignant melanoma, and heart attacks. ...
Two useful references:
Polygenic Health Index, General Health, and Disease Risk
Complex Trait Prediction: Methods and Protocols (Springer 2022)
Sunday, July 03, 2022
BLADE RUNNER - Commentary by Ridley Scott
... a special feature on the Prometheus Blu-ray release makes the film even more interesting by tying it into the Blade Runner universe. Included as an entry in the journal of Peter Weyland (Guy Pearce), who in the film was obsessed with creating artificial life, is the following gem:
A mentor and long-departed competitor once told me that it was time to put away childish things and abandon my “toys.” He encouraged me to come work for him and together we would take over the world and become the new Gods. That’s how he ran his corporation, like a God on top of a pyramid overlooking a city of angels. Of course, he chose to replicate the power of creation in an unoriginal way, by simply copying God. And look how that turned out for the poor bastard. Literally blew up in the old man’s face. I always suggested he stick with simple robotics instead of those genetic abominations he enslaved and sold off-world, although his idea to implant them with false memories was, well… “amusing,” is how I would put it politely.