tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post3718075133339749326..comments2024-01-13T18:57:18.243-05:00Comments on Information Processing: BP oil spill Fermi estimatesSteve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-27758312463959881772010-08-28T20:47:05.193-04:002010-08-28T20:47:05.193-04:00Why are you such a pussy? "I'm writing s...Why are you such a pussy? "I'm writing something that may upset an uber-sensitive irrational enviro-nazi with an emotional investment in doomsday scenarios! Don't yell at me!" <br /><br />Would one of your MMA heroes do that? "I want the belt. Look, even the odds makers think I have a significant probability of beating the champ. Don't yell at me!"Vijay_pawarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-73366297855400286502010-08-09T17:48:31.955-04:002010-08-09T17:48:31.955-04:00This calculation was in the back of my mind...this...This calculation was in the back of my mind...this weekend realized that the computation was volume ratios. Since the molecular weight of oil is much greater than water the ppm should be scaled by the ratio of molecular weights. Crude is a mix of molecular weights but for a Fermi calculation ten times the MW of water is reasonable - so scale down by 10 to 1 part in .01 ppm, or 10 parts per old_fartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-49330043902145647522010-07-31T12:02:42.986-04:002010-07-31T12:02:42.986-04:00Unless oil tends to clump together forming blobs. ...Unless oil tends to clump together forming blobs. Hydrocarbons have hard time mixing with water and tend to minimize the interface area. It's energy consuming process.Antonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-5226112037039926552010-07-29T23:44:04.141-04:002010-07-29T23:44:04.141-04:00Effects on larvae? http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0141...Effects on larvae? http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0141-1136(85)90102-3 "The results showed that oxygen consumption of the larvae at the time of final yolk absorption (5–7 days post hatching at 5°C) is strongly suppressed by oil exposure at concentrations down to 50 ppb. No effect on the oxygen uptake, however, was found during the egg stage." <br /><br />Interestingly according to this Dave Baconnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-51315667158047584292010-07-29T21:00:38.974-04:002010-07-29T21:00:38.974-04:00Bioconcentration is one wild card here. I have no ...Bioconcentration is one wild card here. I have no idea how much petroleum-based hydrocarbons or dispersants get bioconcentrated. If the bioconcentration is significant - and I imagine that whatever bioconcentration of oil occurs is much worse with heavy use of dispersants - then any calculations of environmental impact based on the assumption that oil and dispersants are distributed based on Eric Fossnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-76504862860226177182010-07-29T16:14:32.411-04:002010-07-29T16:14:32.411-04:00Even if the Corexit (or oil itself) kills everythi...Even if the Corexit (or oil itself) kills everything in the 1% sub-volume of water of my calculation, that leaves 99% of the life in the Gulf intact. In other words, it's hard to see a long term impact of this disaster. <br /><br />You have to have a kind of "green nightmare" hypothesis to get to a long term effect: see, this Corexit stuff will never be broken down, it will linger steve hsuhttp://duende.uoregon.edu/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-35387149246769741102010-07-29T15:48:18.566-04:002010-07-29T15:48:18.566-04:00But Steve, what about the Corexit?But Steve, what about the Corexit?Moedernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-73870899528446089052010-07-28T12:54:51.729-04:002010-07-28T12:54:51.729-04:00The volatiles in the oil will evaporate, the parts...The volatiles in the oil will evaporate, the parts that can be decomposed by bacteria and other organisms will also decrease the magnitude greatly. This will happen very quickly. What is left, may be even more miniscule than your estimate. Santa Barbara has plenty of small tar balls wash up on the beach, but the effects don't seem to be bad. The immediate effects are of course bad, but in theJonny Good15noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-46256807768094294222010-07-28T12:44:54.046-04:002010-07-28T12:44:54.046-04:00Eric Weinstein's brother is a biologist. He w...Eric Weinstein's brother is a biologist. He would probably be happy to engage your estimation of the outcomes.Davidnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-49135018713944791872010-07-28T11:48:02.561-04:002010-07-28T11:48:02.561-04:00some other potentially good news, that I'm not...some other potentially good news, that I'm not qualified to evaluate, here:<br /><br />http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/oil-runs-outLuis Enriquenoreply@blogger.com