tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post113393791756772115..comments2024-01-13T18:57:18.243-05:00Comments on Information Processing: Expert predictionsSteve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1153260106014798542006-07-18T18:01:00.000-04:002006-07-18T18:01:00.000-04:00Maybe We Should Leave That Up to the Computer(New ...<A HREF="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/18/technology/18model.html?ei=5070&en=12e07615581c4559&ex=1153886400&emc=eta1&pagewanted=print" REL="nofollow">Maybe We Should Leave That Up to the Computer</A><BR/>(New York Times: July 18, 2006)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1140443123433886442006-02-20T08:45:00.000-05:002006-02-20T08:45:00.000-05:00Steve wrote, In detailed studies, in which "expert...<B>Steve</B> wrote, <I>In detailed studies, in which "experts" were asked to make forecasts about the future (predicting which of three possible futures would occur), it was found that the "experts" did no better than well-informed non-experts!</I><BR/><BR/>Yeah, there was a large experiment on this. It was called "the invasion of Iraq."<BR/><BR/>Some of the so-called "experts" failed Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1134779792143219112005-12-16T19:36:00.000-05:002005-12-16T19:36:00.000-05:00For those who would like to delve more deeply into...For those who would like to delve more deeply into the psychology literature on this subject, a good place to start would be the <A HREF="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/ref=s_sf_b_as/102-6763512-0528109?index=stripbooks&field-author=Robyn+Dawes&field-title=&field-subject=&field-asin=&field-publisher=&url=field-binding%3D&field-age=&field-language=&field-ignore-date=during+0+Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1134078493941705892005-12-08T16:48:00.000-05:002005-12-08T16:48:00.000-05:00High school guidance councellors, stock analysts, ...High school guidance councellors, stock analysts, college admissions officers, realtors... these are all "value subtracted" professions who derive their value through gatekeeper roles and have no incentive to provide accurate forecasts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1134067409199142942005-12-08T13:43:00.000-05:002005-12-08T13:43:00.000-05:00Steve,Many thanks for the nice and clear explanat...Steve,<BR/><BR/>Many thanks for the nice and clear explanation! <BR/><BR/>MFAAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1133992759763499862005-12-07T16:59:00.000-05:002005-12-07T16:59:00.000-05:00MFA: the usual efficient market story is that any ...MFA: the usual efficient market story is that any pattern is eventually erased as enough arbitrageurs become aware of the strategy and "arb it away" :-)<BR/><BR/>How long does "eventually" take? What if the patterns are discovered only through very sophisticated and computationally intensive means? Also, Renaissance are presumably discovering new correlations all the time, and relinquishing old Steve Hsuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1133980420906559312005-12-07T13:33:00.000-05:002005-12-07T13:33:00.000-05:00I have been told that at Caltech they used to pred...I have been told that at Caltech they used to predict, when you came in, what your GPA would be. Then, when you were a Junior or Senior, you could go to the admissions office and check what they predicted for you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1133977435894927312005-12-07T12:43:00.000-05:002005-12-07T12:43:00.000-05:00As Bohr once noticed: Predictions are difficult, e...As Bohr once noticed: Predictions are difficult, especially when they are about the future.Wolfganghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07086991199438418163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1133966044635170332005-12-07T09:34:00.000-05:002005-12-07T09:34:00.000-05:00One think that puzzles me is the following.As you...One think that puzzles me is the following.<BR/><BR/>As you have noted, Simons has been extremely successful in <B>consistently</B> doing well in the market. So his success is no fluke. <BR/><BR/>Now models of finance all assume that financial instruments evolve according to random laws, SDEs to to precise. How can one find ``patterns" in such a situation? <BR/>This, too me would be a classic Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com