tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post113970867477061999..comments2024-01-13T18:57:18.243-05:00Comments on Information Processing: Taleb podcast: What do we know?Steve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-15744420014740728432008-10-19T12:09:00.000-04:002008-10-19T12:09:00.000-04:00Poker outcomes follow a normal distribution market...Poker outcomes follow a normal distribution market returns do not good poker players take advantage of overbets by players and pot odds. Security analyst are sales men is Gs calling for 180 dollar oil in July and reversing to seventy dollar oil in October. Physcist for the most part change hypothesis based on data your ignorance is funny you probably believe in global warming because you observedAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1140025215574298312006-02-15T12:40:00.000-05:002006-02-15T12:40:00.000-05:00Instead of confidence intervals, an even better wa...Instead of confidence intervals, an even better way is if we relayed information in a Bayesian way. You just give your prior and compute your posterior probability. This way, your assumptions will be on full display.Carson C. Chowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08464737817585277975noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1139934525636556172006-02-14T11:28:00.000-05:002006-02-14T11:28:00.000-05:00I thought he made a rather bold assertion: securit...I thought he made a rather bold assertion: securities analysts have the worst forecasting record. What other occupations/fields/problems were tested? How were they tested? I find it improbable that he is referencing a valid study, since this assertion is so poorly circumscribed. It is probably merely a snide remark about an easy target (rich Wall Streeters!)<BR/><BR/>Further, the assertion Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1139902415227927722006-02-14T02:33:00.000-05:002006-02-14T02:33:00.000-05:00Funny.... Tableb is so confident that his fun will...Funny.... Tableb is so confident that his fun will make money :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1139882473983108482006-02-13T21:01:00.000-05:002006-02-13T21:01:00.000-05:00Thanks for the link. Taleb has a good point and i...Thanks for the link. Taleb has a good point and is a fun speaker.Sethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16486234948199900568noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1139778989043148702006-02-12T16:16:00.000-05:002006-02-12T16:16:00.000-05:00Physicists as a population might exhibit selection...Physicists as a population might exhibit selection bias for *general* overconfidence, but perhaps not specifically for overconfidence in dealing with noisy data, the way a stock analyst might be. In fact, the other way around. If a physicist is caught over-generalizing from some statistical data they will endure a good thrashing from their peers.<BR/><BR/>I think it's clear that good poker Steve Hsuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1139766682519947672006-02-12T12:51:00.000-05:002006-02-12T12:51:00.000-05:00I'll bet (with only 50% confidence) that physicist...I'll bet (with only 50% confidence) that physicists are actually even worse than economists and stock analysts. I mean, if there is anything that physicists are known for it is going into other fields and thinking they can be just as good at that field as they were in physics! Lack of confidence is not allowed in physics ;)<BR/><BR/>Another interesting question is how well repeated exposure to Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com