tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post112196259467866058..comments2024-01-13T18:57:18.243-05:00Comments on Information Processing: Revaluation really was imminentSteve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1122062170987555802005-07-22T15:56:00.000-04:002005-07-22T15:56:00.000-04:00It's possible that equilibration won't occur, but ...It's possible that equilibration won't occur, but often that is because of trade barriers and other distortions. <BR/><BR/>Carson: Schumer had the votes to levy a 30% tariff on Chinese goods. BushCo were able to forestall a vote by leaking to them that reval was imminent (see my earlier post). There is pretty strong protectionist sentiment that is putting pressure on China to revalue (same as Steve Hsuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1122061567932011562005-07-22T15:46:00.000-04:002005-07-22T15:46:00.000-04:00Steve,It seems to me that on the short term, it is...Steve,<BR/><BR/>It seems to me that on the short term, it is in the US interest (at least Walmart's) to keep the peg as it is. What is the motivation of this administration to pressure China to remove the peg? They've shown no concern over the deficit. Who's applying the pressure? I thought US businesses like outsourcing.<BR/><BR/>ccCarson C. Chowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08464737817585277975noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1122057707557739722005-07-22T14:41:00.000-04:002005-07-22T14:41:00.000-04:00steve wrote, There is no other way to have "factor...<B>steve</B> wrote, <I>There is no other way to have "factor-price equilibration" between labor in China and the rest of the world (same as in Japan before).</I><BR/><BR/>Is there empirical evidence that such equilibration occurs in a reasonable amount of time?<BR/><BR/>IIRC PPP might not equilibrate for decades or longer (though PPP is not the same as a direct index for the price of a factor of Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1121972084983116582005-07-21T14:54:00.000-04:002005-07-21T14:54:00.000-04:0010% drop in USD would have wiped out Warren Buffet...10% drop in USD would have wiped out Warren Buffet once again :)<BR/><BR/>Factor-price equilibration between China and teh rest of the world maybe fixed by a new "iron-bamboo" curtain... the question is how willing the world governments are in appeasing their electorate, recieving fat check donations from multinational corporations at the same time...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1121971732692827512005-07-21T14:48:00.000-04:002005-07-21T14:48:00.000-04:00Oops, I misread the FX graph - the won/TWD move wa...Oops, I misread the FX graph - the won/TWD move was only a couple of percent today...Steve Hsuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1121965926273451132005-07-21T13:12:00.000-04:002005-07-21T13:12:00.000-04:00Yes, this may eventually burst the housing bubble ...Yes, this may eventually burst the housing bubble here.<BR/><BR/>The contrarian point of view is that China still needs a place to park its surpluses, and where can they go other than US fixed income markets?<BR/><BR/>If you want to see dramatic, forward looking effects, check out the dollar-won and Taiwan dollar exchange rates. They had moved almost 10% earlier this morning. The Korean and Steve Hsuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1121964012866109812005-07-21T12:40:00.000-04:002005-07-21T12:40:00.000-04:00So what happens next? Bond yeilds serge and... W...So what happens next? Bond yeilds serge and... Will this be the event which eventually triggers a burst in the house bubble?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com