tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post110331086983920757..comments2024-01-13T18:57:18.243-05:00Comments on Information Processing: Fed model reconsideredSteve Hsuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1103407955136854692004-12-18T17:12:00.000-05:002004-12-18T17:12:00.000-05:00Also, Perez Galdos "Maus" is a masterpiece of a no...Also, Perez Galdos "Maus" is a masterpiece of a novel about a father and office worker who, gentle soul though he is, is reduced to a squeak.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1103407696110337922004-12-18T17:08:00.000-05:002004-12-18T17:08:00.000-05:00Anne :)Anne :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1103407666475880502004-12-18T17:07:00.000-05:002004-12-18T17:07:00.000-05:00I will remember to sign, Grumble Grumble. When I ...I will remember to sign, Grumble Grumble. When I think of Anonymous, I think of "Ikiru" by Kurosawa.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1103406861555726732004-12-18T16:54:00.000-05:002004-12-18T16:54:00.000-05:00So, we have to invent valuation criteria anew, as ...So, we have to invent valuation criteria anew, as Jeremy Siegal argues, and assume a 20 to 22 norm for the p/e ratio. There goes the nice risk premium. European stocks are better valued, but earnings growth is likely to lag. Pacific stocks are 75% Japanese, and Japan has been the riskiest of developed country stock markets since the beginning of 1990. Emerging markets? Lots of risk. Yes, Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1103398010014514832004-12-18T14:26:00.000-05:002004-12-18T14:26:00.000-05:00Anne,
I would say that all US assets (stocks, bon...Anne,<br /><br />I would say that all US assets (stocks, bonds, real estate) right now are expensive. The record low yields on Treasurys sets the "risk free" rate (well, OK, technically TIPS are the risk free rate), and everything is measured relative to that. The prices of all other assets have been bid up in a search for yield, so consequently E/P (stocks) or rent/price (real estate; even if weSteve Hsuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1103383720812908142004-12-18T10:28:00.000-05:002004-12-18T10:28:00.000-05:00http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/16/international/as...http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/16/international/asia/16china.html<br /><br />Workers Demand Union at Wal-Mart Supplier in China<br />By HOWARD W. FRENCH <br /> <br />SHENZHEN, China - The scene on the street did not look like much, just the comings and goings of small groups of women from their factory dormitory, with a few lingering here and there in knots to discuss their situation.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1103383623929336242004-12-18T10:27:00.000-05:002004-12-18T10:27:00.000-05:00I will read your Blog thoroughly from now. I am, ...I will read your Blog thoroughly from now. I am, by the way, most optimistic about China being able to sustain growth of 7 to 12% for quite a while if she can engineer or stimulate a more and more robust middle class consumer driven domestic market. The export model of development has limits that may all too soon be reached for a country the size of China.<br /><br />AnneAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1103382507336108042004-12-18T10:08:00.000-05:002004-12-18T10:08:00.000-05:00Sorry, I am not used to this sort of comment. Tha...Sorry, I am not used to this sort of comment. That was Anne, and thank you for the interesting Blog.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1103382354171192922004-12-18T10:05:00.000-05:002004-12-18T10:05:00.000-05:00This is quite interesting. Price earning ratios h...This is quite interesting. Price earning ratios have stayed high through the bear market and are high from an historical perspective at present. I am not sure how to interpret this. How much were earning artificially inflated by 2000? Are investors from this point on to be content with buying stocks at a p/e ratio of 18 to 20 or higher? What would S&P valuation look like with the expensing Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1103320161354440232004-12-17T16:49:00.000-05:002004-12-17T16:49:00.000-05:00To be honest, I can't claim to have any understand...To be honest, I can't claim to have any understanding of the early 20th century data. Were reliable P/E numbers available? Is there any evidence that very many people ever tried to "crunch the numbers" the way we do routinely today? (Other than Graham and Dodd followers, who were probably a small minority.)<br /><br />I think the general attitude of investors evolves collectively over time, from Steve Hsuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02428333897272913660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5880610.post-1103319615510255482004-12-17T16:40:00.000-05:002004-12-17T16:40:00.000-05:00I thought the reason for the bad fit earlier is th...I thought the reason for the bad fit earlier is that in the old days, people didn't understand how to value stocks. They expected to be compensated nicely in dividends, and didn't take into account capital appreciation.<br /><br />Similarly, in the old days, people didn't fully price in inflation expectations into bond yields.<br /><br />(This isn't my analysis; just a claim I read.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com